Let’s leave the co-main event for a second, UFC 274 was amazing. Everyone wants to complain about the women’s strawweight title fight and that’s just unfair. There have been a lot of terrible fights in the past that were supposed to be great (Ngannou-Lewis, Romero-Adesanya).
Last week we went 1-1-1 and the only win was actually parlay. Overall, the reading of the main event, which can be read here, was almost spot on, but Gaethje broke hearts to win in under 2.5 rounds at +320 (bets closed at +230).
On the night, we benefited for the third week in a row and fourth in six attempts. Total sponsors of my weekly picks including parlay increased 17.4 earning units for all six UFC cards. Let’s continue with the best UFC picks for UFC Fight Night tonight!
All odds were accurate at the time of writing this article…
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UFC Fight Night picks and predictions
Blachowicz (+165) vs. Rakic (-195)
Former heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz returns to the Octagon on Saturday against Alexsandar Rakic. This is a tough question to call as Rakic is undoubtedly the most skilled striker but sometimes he lacks the killer instinct to get a fighter out of there.
Rakic’s last two fights don’t make me run to my sports betting app to bet on him.
However, his takedown defense is strong enough that Blachowicz doesn’t show an edge grab. Overall, this fight could turn into a semi-chess match between the two strikers where Rakic carefully maneuvers around the cage. There is some value in Blachowicz winning a decision at +460, but without any grappling advantage, I think they outplay him while he’s on his feet.
Rakic will likely win this fight by decision which is +235 on PointsBet Sportsbook. If you’re not sure if his inactivity is a detriment to his play, he can choose to take ‘the fight goes to the end’ at +115, which is where I’m at in this case.
Picks from UFC Fight Night tonight: The fight goes to decision +115 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Andre Petroski (+310) vs. Nick Maxmiov (-435)
Lowkey, one of my favorites on the undercard is Andre Petroski vs. Nick Maximoff. Two extremely skilled chain fighters facing off. Maximov is from the Nick Diaz Academy and seems to be the next big thing to come from that field of fighting.
Petroski trains with Sean Brady and Paul Felder in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and is a highly skilled 7-1 fighter.
Both fighters have pretty good gas tanks, so a late finish is very much alive. Maximov looked dominant as a slight underdog in his last fight against Punahele Soriano, a powerful striker.
However, Soriano never started punching because he feared Maximov’s struggle. It’s the same reason Khabib has never been knocked out in his career, the grip is so dominant that hitting isn’t much of a weakness.
The interesting thing about this fight for me is that Petroski is an extremely competitive fighter. He even beat JuCo National Champion wrestler Phil Hawes in a straight grappling match at Fury Pro Grappling 3 on New Year’s Eve.
At the time of writing, Petroski is a +300 underdog, which makes no sense. Maximov was an underdog against Soriano and he was a big bet there. In this fight, the overcorrection is too great. Petroski is too much alive for a KO or TKO, he shouldn’t be as terrified of Maximov’s chain fight as his previous opponents were.
Picks from UFC Fight Night tonight: Andre Petroski ML +310 | by KO/TKO +1600 (Draft Kings)
UFC Fight Night Parlay (+787): Ribas (+144) + Rakic/Blachowicz fight starts round 3 (-210) + Hill/Jandiroba GTD (-220) + Michael Johnson ML (-144)
Getting the parlay last week was a nice consolation prize after Justin Gaethje ripped everyone’s hearts out with two knockdowns in the first round and then submitted moments later. In five tries, the parlay is 2-3, for +8 units of profit. Some notes…
This bet was placed on FanDuel Sportsbook, which again offers all its users the UFC Parlay insurance for bets up to $25, sign up on the promotions page.
- Chookagian as a favorite -200? Pass. Ribas is a solid striker and a much better fighter. Ribas all day like an underdog, she’s a legitimate prospect.
- Jandiroba probably wins this by decision thanks to his grappling. I could go for Jandiroba by decision (+150) as a stretch here as well. However, Hill’s durability scares me. Taking the safest game for parlay.
- Michael Johnson is the most unlucky fighter on the list. He is up against Alan Patrick, whom he should have a significant advantage in hitting and defending takedowns from.
Reference-nypost.com