Before Saturday’s UFC 274 in Phoenix, theScore’s Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top fighting
lightweight championship
Charles Oliveira (32-8, 1 NC)
against
Justin Gaethje (23-3)
This was already one of the most anticipated fights of 2022, but things got even more interesting on Friday.
Oliveira missed the weight before what was supposed to be his second defense of the lightweight title and will be stripped of the belt at the start of the contest. Only Gaethje is eligible to become champion.
It’s hard to say how the peso fiasco will affect Oliveira, if at all. Fighters often lose weight and perform well. But this was an unprecedented situation: Oliveira became the first UFC champion to lose weight. You have to imagine that will take a mental toll on him.
Also, Gaethje had a good amount of time to start. rehydrating while Oliveira was still trying to push himself to the limit. Gaethje could be fresher by the time the fight starts.
Before the weigh-ins, I was prepared to side with Oliveira, who has some of the nastiest jiu-jitsu skills in the entire sport. I thought he would weather Gaethje’s storm in the striking department and end up sinking into a mid-fight submission, similar to how his first title defense played out against Dustin Poirier back in December.
But I will change my choice to Gaethje. This was, and still is, a very close matchup on paper, so it’s more of a gut feeling than anything else. I’m just worried about how Oliveira will look and I can’t help but think we won’t see him in his prime.
Expect “The Highlight” to use his pressure to overwhelm Oliveira on his feet. And before “Do Bronx” has a chance to take him to the canvas, Gaethje will find the stoppage win.
The chose: Gaethje, first round knockout
strawweight championship
Rose Namajunas (11-4)
against
Carla Esparza (18-6)
Namajunas is a heavy favorite to defeat Esparza in the rematch and make it 1-1 in their series, but Esparza’s deceptive style could give the champion a run for her money.
Of course, this is a completely different matchup than when Namajunas and Esparza squared off in 2014 for the inaugural UFC strawweight title. That was only Namajunas’ fourth pro fight. There isn’t much we can glean from Esparza’s submission win over Namajunas to help us predict how the second match will play out.
Still, Esparza is the best fighter Namajunas has ever faced. “The Cookie Monster” chokes opponents to the ground – his most recent victory against Yan Xiaonan in May 2021 was especially violent – and he could do the same with Namajunas.
Namajunas will likely have to keep this fight going to retain his title. She’s a much better puncher, so expect her to keep her distance, reduce her kick volume so Esparza can’t grab her leg for an easy takedown, and try to out-punch Esparza.
Ultimately, Namajunas has grown the most since their first matchup, so I’m leaning in his direction. I like that “Thug” stays cool and limits Esparza’s takedowns enough to win most rounds. Namajunas has her own submission skills, so if Esparza gets her down, he won’t be completely one-sided either.
The selection: Namajunas, unanimous decision
light combat
Michael Chandler (22-7)
against
Tony Ferguson (25-6)
This fight comes down to how far Ferguson is from his prime.
“El Cucuy” in his prime would have beaten Chandler, but the man who was dominated by Gaethje, Oliveira and Beneil Dariush in the last two years probably won’t.
If Ferguson has used the last year off to rejuvenate himself, work on his skills and figure out what went wrong, then maybe he can pull off the upset. But I have to base my prediction on what we’ve seen lately, and that means siding with Chandler.
The former Bellator champion should defeat Ferguson in what is likely to be a shocking battle for the duration of the fight. Prime Ferguson could have tried to drop Chandler and go for a submission, but I doubt that will be the case on Saturday.
Ferguson could have a few moments in the fight. Compared to Oliveira and Dariush, this is a much better matchup for him stylistically, as Chandler is primarily a striker. But Chandler has done well in the UFC so far, so it’s hard to pick an aging veteran to beat him. He hits harder than Ferguson and will hit at a higher rate.
Ferguson has always been tough as nails, but that won’t win him fights, at least not anymore. Unless the Ferguson of yesteryear returns, this one could get a little ugly.
The chose: Chandler, TKO in the third round
Reference-www.thescore.com