On April 3, a survey commissioned by the Wall Street Journal indicated that former United States President and 2024 Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump would be ahead in six of seven key states to win a majority in the U.S. Electoral College.
Of course, it is still early, but we must recognize that despite his setbacks in court – on Monday he became the first former American president to appear before the criminal justice system – Trump could indeed be elected president again next November .
Trump’s political journey
During the 2016 presidential election, which he won, Trump emerged from the pack of Republican contenders by presenting himself as a nonconformist candidate.
He had put on the clothes of a “new Republican” who did not hesitate to take on those who had dominated the party since the pivotal presidency of Ronald Reagan.
When he was chosen as the candidate at the July 2016 Republican convention, his first words were: “I will be your voice. » The campaign that followed focused very much on him, on his personality as a billionaire businessman and television star. His profile was clearly different from the traditional career politician profile to which Americans have been exposed for several decades. This is how, to the surprise of seasoned observers, he won the November 2016 election.
But the surprise was not limited to the 2016 election.
After coming to power, Trump put in place a very polarizing administration, made often unpredictable and improvised gestures, and governed in a confrontational dynamic against several other government authorities. A style of governance that contrasted with many traditions and conventions of American politics. Its proximity to certain authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un has also destabilized the United States’ allies.
Throughout his term in office, Trump will be remembered for making efforts to demolish the legacy of his predecessor, Barack Obama, on healthcare accessibility, which he failed to do. However, he withdrew the United States from the Paris agreement on climate change, as well as the nuclear arms control agreement with Iran.
After losing control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, President Trump was impeached for the first time in a process ofimpeachment (impeachment) for “abuse of power” and “obstruction of the proper functioning of Congress”. In 2020, he lost the White House to Joe Biden. At the same time, the Republican Party had to cede control of the Senate. Trump never accepted his defeat and obstructed the peaceful transition of power.
The events that followed this election, such as the riot of January 6, 2021, which had all the appearance of an attempted insurrection, led to a new indictment as part of a second impeachment procedure.
Thus, from 2016 to 2021, the unpredictable and non-conformist character of Donald Trump contributed to fueling a political climate marked by surprise at the escapades of the president and his administration.
Trump in 2024: the continuity of non-conformism
Today, we see that the 2024 version of candidate Trump can count on a much broader and much more engaged base than in 2016, seduced by his MAGA slogan (Make America Great Again) as well as his conservative and populist vision. Many of his supporters still believe the 2020 election was stolen. The team running his campaign has taken control of the Republican Party organization and eliminated all dissent internally. Trump himself wields a lot of influence over the Republican caucuses in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The former president speaks of revenge against his adversaries and against some of those who abandoned him since his defeat in 2020. He promises to transform the civil service and bring it in line with his policies. He also said he intends to be a “dictator for a day,” which would allow him to close the border with Mexico. He also described those currently imprisoned or in the process of being imprisoned for their involvement in the January 6, 2021 riot as “hostages”, and promised to grant them presidential pardons if he is elected. Additionally, he sees himself as a victim of the politicization of the American justice system by Democrats and the “radical left,” a situation he promises to correct. These are actions that promise to be very divisive if he is elected president again.
On the international scene, Trump continues to be wary of intergovernmental organizations and his recent comments regarding certain non-paying NATO members are causing great concern among the United States’ Western allies. Hungarian President Viktor Orbán confided, following a meeting with Trump, that the latter did not intend to support Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.
In short, the 2024 version of Donald Trump is a continuation of the non-conformism that marked his presidency from 2017 to 2021. If he is elected again, there will be no surprises this time.
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reference: www.lapresse.ca