This week marks the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former US president in New York, sparking intense interest in its potential outcome. To objectively assess the likelihood of Donald Trump being convicted, I used probabilistic tools to examine the dynamics of jury selection, a crucial aspect in this case.
The composition of the jury, chosen partly randomly, is one of the main factors in this evaluation. I analyzed various variables such as the political orientation of prospective jurors, the goals of the judge and prosecutors, and the propensity of jurors to be influenced by arguments presented at trial.
To quantify these factors objectively, I used probability theory. However, it is essential to recognize the assumptions necessary to integrate a complex reality into a simplified model.
For example, I assumed that a purely reasonable and unbiased person would find Trump guilty of the charges against him.
Furthermore, I considered that the only way for the former president to avoid conviction is to have one of his die-hard supporters on the jury, who would refuse to convict him under any circumstances.
To assess the probability of such a scenario, I used the binomial distribution, which allows us to establish the probability of a given number of successes in a series of independent trials. In our case, “success” for Trump would be that at least one of his ardent supporters is selected as a juror among the twelve selection “trials”.
A diehard on the jury
By combining several factors, such as the proportion of voters who voted for Trump in the 2020 presidential election, the proportion of die-hard supporters among those voters, and the effectiveness of the selection process in maintaining an impartial jury, I I obtained a 16% probability that at least one staunch Trump supporter would be selected as a juror.
To the extent that the assumptions mentioned above come true, this would give an 84% probability of conviction.
However, it is crucial to emphasize that this probability assessment is not a prediction of the actual outcome of the trial. Justice is a complex and often unpredictable process. Even with sophisticated analyses, the final verdict remains uncertain.
In conclusion, this analysis based on probability theory offers an interesting perspective on the possibility, albeit remote, that Trump could avoid conviction. However, it is important to keep in mind the probabilistic and uncertain nature of justice as this case continues to attract attention and debate.
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