The barometer of World Trade Organization (WTO) indicates a continued recovery of trade in services despite the conflict in Ukraine.
The latest reading of 105.5 announced this Thursday is clearly above the previous reading of 102.5 in September 2021 and comfortably above the 100 reference value for the index, indicating that the trade in services post sustained earnings in the second quarter of the year once official statistics for the period are available.
The Services Trade Barometer is surpassing the Goods Trade Barometerwhich points to a possible shift in patterns of consumption of goods and back to services as the covid-19 pandemic Is relieved.
Take note: The Services Trade Barometer highlights turning points and changing patterns in global services trade.
Unlike its goods counterpart, the fluctuations recorded by the services indicator coincide with movements in real trade flows, rather than anticipating them.
Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends. Readings above 100 suggest above-trend growth, while readings below 100 indicate the opposite.
Among the indices that make up the Services Trade Barometer, the index of air Transport of passengers (117.1 points) recorded the strongest increase, which contributed to the above-trend reading in the global index.
Strong results in the services purchasing managers’ index (105.1) and information and communication technology services (104.2) also helped lift the services barometer reading.
While remaining above trend, the financial services index (101.7) appears to have lost momentum recently, possibly due to sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation in connection with the conflict in Ukraine.
Other indices, including container shipping (101.5) and construction (101.1), remain slightly above trend.
Recent developments in services trade are illustrated by the Services Trade Activity Index, which provides a rough measure of the actual volume of world trade in services taking into account changes in prices and exchange rates.
The index has shown slow but steady growth since services trade bottomed out in the second quarter of 2020 in the early stages of the global pandemic.
Likewise, the index continued to move towards recovery in the fourth quarter of 2021 with a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, although it remained 8.9% below its pre-pandemic peak in the second quarter of 2019.
roberto.morales@eleconomista.