This story was originally published by The Guardian and appears here as part of the Climatic desk collaboration.
Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise at least 2.5 C above pre-industrial levels this century, exceeding internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet, an exclusive report. guardian The survey has revealed it.
Nearly 80 percent of respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predict at least 2.5 C of global warming, while almost half anticipate at least 3 C. Only six percent thought that the internationally agreed limit of 1.5 C would be met.
Many scientists foresee a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migrations driven by heat waves, wildfires, floods and storms of much greater intensity and frequency than those that have already hit.
Numerous experts They said they had felt hopeless, angry and scared by the governments’ lack of action despite the clear scientific evidence provided.
“I think we’re headed for major social disruption in the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl of the University of Tasmania. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by one extreme event after another, food production will be disrupted. “I couldn’t feel more despair about the future.”
But many said the climate fight must continue, no matter how much global temperatures rise, because every fraction of a degree avoided would reduce human suffering.
Peter Cox, from the University of Exeter, UK, said: “Climate change will not suddenly become dangerous at 1.5°C; it already is. And it won’t be game over if we pass the 2 Cs, which is very likely to happen.”
The Guardian reached out to all contactable lead authors or reviewing editors of IPCC reports since 2018. Almost half responded, 380 out of 843. IPCC reports are gold standard assessments of climate change, endorsed by all governments and produced by experts in physical and social sciences. The results show that many of the most informed people on the planet expect climate havoc to occur in the coming decades.
The planet is heading towards warming of at least 2.5 C with disastrous results for humanity, according to a survey of hundreds of scientists. #GlobalTemperatures #GlobalHeating #ClimatePolicies #ClimateCrisis
The climate crisis is already causing profound damage to lives and livelihoods worldwide, with only 1.2 C of global warming on average over the last four years. Jesse Keenan of Tulane University in the United States said: “This is just the beginning: buckle up.”
Nathalie Hilmi of the Monaco Scientific Centre, who expects a rise of 3°C, agreed: “We cannot stay below 1.5°C.”
Experts said massive preparations were now essential to protect people from the worst climate disasters to come. Leticia Cotrim da Cunha of Rio de Janeiro State University said: “I am extremely concerned about the cost in human lives.”
The 1.5 C target was chosen to avoid the worst of the climate crisis and has been seen as a important guiding star for international negotiations. Current climate policies mean the world is on the way for about 2.7 Cand The Guardian The survey shows that few IPCC experts expect the world to take the enormous steps needed to reduce it.
Younger scientists were more pessimistic: 52 percent of respondents under 50 expected an increase of at least 3°C, compared to 38 percent of those over 50. Female scientists were also more pessimistic than men, with 49 per cent thinking global temperatures would rise by at least 3°C, compared to 38 per cent. There was little difference between scientists from different continents.
Dipak Dasgupta of the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi said: “If the world, however incredibly rich, stands by and does little to address the plight of the poor, we will all eventually lose.”
Experts were clear about why the world is failing to address the climate crisis. Nearly three-quarters of respondents cited a lack of political will, while 60 percent also blamed vested corporate interests, such as the fossil fuel industry.
Many also cited inequality and the rich world’s inability to help the poor, who suffer the most from climate impacts. “I expect a semi-dystopian future with substantial pain and suffering for people in the Global South,” said one South African scientist, who preferred not to be identified. “The world’s response to date is reprehensible: we live in a time of fools.”
About a quarter of IPCC experts who responded thought global temperature rise would remain at 2C or less, but even they tempered their hopes.
“I am convinced that we have all the necessary solutions for a 1.5C path and that we will implement them in the next 20 years,” said Henry Neufeldt, at the UN Copenhagen Climate Centre. “But I fear that our actions will come too late and we will cross one or more several turning points.”
Lisa Schipper of the University of Bonn, Germany, said: “My only source of hope is the fact that, as an educator, I can see the next generation being very intelligent and understanding politics.”