The note of the day is not that the morning changes headquarters from the National Palace to New York. Same content, different audience.
No, what should attract the attention of the markets today are the inflationary measurements published by Inegi. The National Consumer Price Index and the National Producer Price Index for the month of October.
There is special attention to retail inflation indicators, both the general measurement and the one that measures underlying prices. There is an expectation of reaching peak levels in more than a decade.
Beyond the data, available from six in the morning today, the important thing will be to detect where pressures may be generating in the heart of inflation and where there may be a relaxation in the fortnights to come, such as in the prices of fuels, which in this month of November already show some reduction.
With today’s data, what follows is to be able to verify that, at least, a majority of members of the Governing Board of Banco de México remains intransigent with inflation and that this Thursday a new increase in the interbank rate should reach a day.
Unanimity would be desirable, because it reinforces the message to the markets, but if it is not achieved, at least the bankers’ discourse goes in the direction of spreading the damage that high inflation can cause among the population, especially in those who they have less income.
It is true that a high interest rate can scare consumers away, especially when there is one day before the Good End begins, but the economic and social damage caused by the inflation tax is more pernicious.
Above all, because on this occasion wages do not seem to have much room to match the increases in the prices of products and services given the slow and uneven economic recovery.
The message that sends the way in which, eventually, a new increase in the benchmark rate of the Bank of Mexico is decided this Thursday will also be an advance for the markets of what they can expect from the autonomous central bank starting next year.
If that line drawn with political overtones in the decision is maintained, nervousness will increase due to the change in the balance within the Governing Board.
If the approach to attacking the restrictive monetary policy that Banco de México has implemented is political because it is believed that the central bank threatens growth with monetary barriers, they should consider the effects that inflation has on a population that became more impoverished with the pandemic. Or more clearly, they should consider whether voters are happy with the loss of purchasing power they suffer from inflation.
And if they want more political filters to better understand the monetary decisions of the Mexican central bank, let them consider the obsession that President López Obrador has with the exchange rate and how a less proactive attitude of the Governing Board could imply a more accelerated depreciation of the peso against the dollar.
Host of Televisa Newscasts
The great Depression
Graduated in Communication Sciences from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, with a specialty in finance from the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico and a master in Journalism from the Anáhuac University.
His professional career has been dedicated to different media. He is currently a columnist for the newspaper El Economista and a host of newscasts on Televisa. He is the owner of the 2:00 pm news space on Foro TV.
He is a specialist in economic-financial matters with more than 25 years of experience as a commentator and host on radio and television. He has been part of companies such as Radio Programs de México, where he participated in the VIP business radio. He was also part of the management and talent team of Radio Fórmula.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx