Polls show the Progressive Conservatives winning since the start of the campaign. Doug Ford’s party is heading for a second majority in sight.
The New Democrats are likely to form the Official Opposition, but with a lower percentage of the popular vote than the Liberals.
The Greens are hopeful of winning a second seat.
Brampton North
Three of Brampton’s five ridings were won by very narrow leads in 2018. The NDP won the constituency with 497 more votes than the Progressive Conservatives.
Incumbent Kevin Yarde lost the nomination in April and left the NDP caucus to sit as an independent for the final weeks of the parliamentary session.
Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was present at the official opening of candidate Sandeep Singh’s office.
Doug Ford’s first campaign stop was in Brampton North, alongside candidate Graham McGregor. At least one published poll puts the Progressive Conservatives in the lead in the riding.
The liberal Harinder Malhi has already represented the sector before the redrawing of the electoral map.
- Progressive Conservative Party: Graham McGregor
- New Democratic Party: Sandeep Singh
- Liberal Party: Harinder Malhi
- Green Party: Aneep Dhade
- New Blue Party: Jerry Fussek
- Party Ontario: Julia Bauman
Essex
A close battle could take place in Essex, in southwestern Ontario. the NDP narrowly edged out the Progressive Conservatives there in 2018. The two parties alone won more than 90% of the vote.
Incumbent MP Taras Natyshak, however, is not running again and his closest rival from 2018, Chris Lewis, is also not in the race since he has since been elected as a federal MP.
the NDP and the CPAP both believe they have a chance of winning in Essex, but the popularity of smaller right-wing parties, such as the New Blue Party and the Ontario Party, could hurt the latter.
- Progressive Conservative Party: Anthony Leardi
- New Democratic Party: Ron LeClair
- Liberal Party: Manpreet Brar
- Green Party: Nicholas Wendler
- New Blue Party: Danielle Sylvester
- Party Ontario: Frank Causarano
- None of these direct democracy party answers: Kevin Linfield
Ottawa West–Nepean
In 2018, Progressive Conservative candidate Jeremy Roberts, not his first attempt, edged New Democrat Chandra Pasma by just 175 votes, ending 15 years of Liberal rule in the riding.
Ms Pasma is running again and, like Liberal Sam Bhalesar, she thinks she can win the constituency from the Conservatives. Andrea Horwath and Steven Del Duca have been there several times over the past two weeks.
Voters’ resentment following the terrible storm that swept through the region on May 21 could also influence the vote. Doug Ford visited the area on Monday; this is the first time since the start of the campaign.
- Progressive Conservative Party: Jeremy Roberts
- New Democratic Party: Chandra Pasma
- Liberal Party: Sam Bhalesar
- Green Party: Steven Warren
- Parti Ontario: Vilteau Delvas
Parry Sound–Muskoka
The Greens are pinning a lot of hope on this conservative fortified castle, where they hope to elect a second deputy.
After nearly 20 years at Queen’s Park, PPC MP Norm Miller is not running again. It was Bracebridge Mayor Graydon Smith who was trying to retain the seat for the Progressive Conservatives.
The Greens believe, however, that Matt Richter, who is running for the fifth time, can win. This teacher who went into business won just over 20% of the vote in 2018. He and his leader led a very active campaign in the constituency. Mike Schreiner will return there on Tuesday.
The Liberal candidate’s withdrawal due to outlandish theories about the causes of homosexuality could help the Greens this time around.
- Progressive Conservative Party: Graydon Smith
- New Democratic Party: Erin Horvath
- Liberal Party: none
- Green Party: Matt Richter
- New Blue Party: Doug Maynard
- Party Ontario: Andrew John Cocks
- Populist Ontario: Brad Waddell
- Independent: Daniel Predie Jr.
Sault Ste. Married
The incumbent Conservative MP won the election in 2018 with just 414 votes more than his New Democrat opponent Michele McCleave-Kennedy, who is running again this year. Together, they obtained 83% of the votes in the last poll.
Doug Ford visited the riding frequently during his tenure and stopped there early in the campaign.
Andrea Horwath was supposed to go on Saturday, but mechanical problems with the plane forced her to settle for a videoconference. The trip had already been postponed for the first time because the NDP leader had contracted COVID.
The candidate initially chosen by the Liberals had to be replaced after inappropriate comments made online resurfaced. It is ultimately Liam Hancock who represents the Liberals in Sault Ste. Married.
- Progressive Conservative Party: Ross Romano
- New Democratic Party: Michele McCleave-Kennedy
- Liberal Party: Liam Hancock
- Green Party: Keagan Gilfillan
- New Blue Party: Shane Pankhurst
- Independent: Naomi Sayers
Thunder Bay–Atikokan
This Northwestern Ontario riding was one of the most hotly contested in 2018.
New Democrat Judith Monteith-Farrell defeated veteran Liberal Bill Mauro by 81 votes, or 0.3% of the vote. It was the first time since 1985 that the Liberals failed to win in at least part of the territory now covered by the riding of Thunder Bay–Atikokan.
Another duel is expected on June 2 between Ms. Monteith-Farrell and Liberal Robert Barrett.
Steven Del Duca went there on May 22. Andrea Horwath’s visit to that riding was also canceled due to mechanical problems with the plane that had been chartered.
- Progressive Conservative Party: Kevin Holland
- New Democratic Party: Judith Monteith-Farrell
- Liberal Party: Robert Barrett
- Green Party: Eric Arner
- New Blue Party: David Tommasini
- Party Ontario: Dan Criger
- Ontario North Party: Kenneth Jones
Based on information from Lucas Powers of CBC
Reference-ici.radio-canada.ca