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This is the average of all the electoral polls published on the February 13 elections
Castilla y León opens Pandora’s box on February 13th. The first early regional elections in the community will mark the starting signal for an electoral cycle that could last more than two years, in which regional, municipal, general and European elections will be linked. A trail of calls that will be read, without exception, in a national key.
The average of all the surveys published since the call for the elections, on December 20, until this Monday, February 7, the last legal day to disseminate opinion studies, shows a comfortable 5-point advantage for the PP over the PSOE after the first week of campaignin which the chaotic outcome of the labor reform in Congress has fully impacted.
The current Chairman of the Board, Alfonso Fernandez Manuecowho governed with Cs and dissolved the regional courts in search of a majority that would allow him not to depend on any other force, stands at 34.4% of the votes, 1.4 points less than at the end of last week.
The PSOE candidate, Luis Tudanca, would remain at 29.5% after losing half a point over the weekend. The popular ones would improve their previous result by 2.5 points, but this increase has been greatly diminished with the past of the electoral campaign. The Socialists, who won the elections in 2019, would lose 5.7 points.
citizens, which in 2019 was the third force, would lose almost ten points, and would sink to 5.4%. The orange party would be overwhelmed by vox Y United We Can. The ultras would grow up to 12.4% and have gained one point compared to the end of last week. Purples remain at 7.1%, the same percentage as a week ago.
The calculations made by EL PERIÓDICO based on a formula used by Ivan Serranoresearcher at the IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute) of the UOC, correspond to the Weighted average of the main published polls. The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, based on the sample size (the larger, the higher value) and the fieldwork date (the more recent, the more significant).
Converting these percentages into seats, Mañueco would stay a little further from the absolute majorityset at 41 attorneys in the Courts of Castile and León. The PP would go from 29 to 34 seats, one less than before the weekend, and would need support to govern the region in Vox, which would jump from 1 to 9 parliamentarians (one more than last week).
The PSOE would go back from 35 to 28 representatives (one less than last week). The biggest drop Cs would experience it, which would keep only 1 of the 12 seats it got in 2019 (one less than the previous week), while United We Can add a third parliamentarian to its 2 current deputies.
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The Castilian-Leon Parliament would be completed with Union of the Leonese People (UPL), which would go from 1 to 2 attorneys, and with the new party Spain Emptied, which would enter Parliament with 2 seats. The other provincial brand currently represented, By Avila (XAV), would keep the deputy that it achieved in 2019. It should be noted that España Vaciada only competes in five of the nine provinces and is the result of the coalition of several provincial candidates, including Soria Now.