An intruder with the name of a mythological winged horse has ‘hacked’ Spanish politics and threatens both the stability of the Government and, therefore, the continuity of a legislature that continues to chain shocks. Of the pandemic and its social and economic ravages passed to the war in ukraine and his lashes on the pocket of the Spaniards. The Government seemed to live an apparent truce with the stormy relief in the PP leadershipbut arnica has been short-lived in the Council of Ministers.
At the beginning of the year, the popular ones started in the polls with a notable cushion on the PSOE due to the wear and tear that the Executive’s management caused in the Socialists. The sock turned around with the drop Paul Married and the landing of Alberto Nunez Feijoo at the head of the PP, a convulsive transition that breathed oxygen into the Moncloa hosts. But the espionage scandal with Pegasus has again left the dispute between the Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, and the new leader of the opposition, who is approaching the absolute majority, of course, with the extreme right of Vox. And all in the absence of a month for the elections in Andalusia, the first post-Pegasus test at the polls.
The average of all surveys on the general elections published in 2022 places the PSOE 1.5 points ahead of the PP, an advantage that at the beginning of April, just when Feijóo took charge of his party, exceeded four points. That is to say, the government erosion and the change of leader has allowed the Conservatives to cut two and a half points from the Socialists. Now Sánchez would achieve the 26.5% of the votes (almost one point less than at the beginning of April) and Feijóo would obtain the 25% (2 points more than when he became president of the PP). Converted that average into seats, the advantage of the PSOE over the PP has been reduced from 16 to just 4 deputies. Sánchez would get today 107 seats and Feijoo, 103. In the last month and a half, the socialists have lost 5 deputies and the popular ones have won 7.
The calculations made by EL PERIÓDICO based on a formula used by Ivan Serranoresearcher at the IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute) of the UOC, correspond to the Weighted average of the main published polls. The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, based on the sample size (the larger, the higher value) and the fieldwork date (the more recent, the more significant).
The recovery of the PP since the relief of Casado by Feijóo has stalled its communicating vessel, voxwhich in this same period has remained at 18.7% of the votes and 66 deputies (one less than earlier). Santiago Abascal would consolidate as the third force, but the distance with respect to the popular rises to 37 parliamentarians. United We Canthe other member of the Government, also suffers wear, although less than his fellow Cabinet member, and drops two tenths and two deputies, going from 30 to 28 seats since April.
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This means that the sum of the current partners of the Government (135) would be well below the 155 deputies that they reaped in the last elections, which would make it even more difficult for them to string together a stable majority in Congress. A priori, PP and Vox, with a total of 169 seatsthey would have more possibilities to govern, although Feijóo would have to convince a third, or even fourth partner, to prop up a majority with the extreme right.
The rest of the political forces move, for the moment, in figures similar to those of April. CKDwhich has suspended its parliamentary collaboration with the PSOE, remains in the 12 seats, while together repeats the average of 7 deputies from a month and a half ago. Also More Country the same record is noted, 4 seats, unlike citizenswhich is also harmed by the growth of the PP and which would be left with only one deputy in Congress, one less than at the beginning of April.