This election should be about the climate crisis, but not

Canada’s 44th federal election should have been on the climate crisis. The summer of 2021 will be the hottest in Canadian history. Apocalyptic wildfires filled our skies with smoke, a heat dome killed 800 British Columbia residents in a single week, about half the death toll of the entire British Columbia pandemic, and days before it broke. calling the election, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its most dire report to date.

None of the party’s climate platforms in this election match what the IPCC says is needed.

Why is this choice not a climate choice? Because elections are all about power, and in our backward first-last-post system, voters in changing constituencies have inordinate power, so they set the agenda. Almost each and every one of the most contested ring roads this time is suburban, while our climate movement is heavily concentrated in metropolitan Canada.

But historically, most races in urban Canada are decided by large voting margins, tens of thousands, which means our political system is less responsive to these districts.

Of course, the Canadian climate movement has been successful. All the major parties in this election have some form of carbon pricing on their platforms. But we are a far from the policy required to keep global warming at 1.5 C.

What kind of political movement will it take to bring our representatives closer to what scientists say is necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change? The answer is a new strategy focused on building movements in the Canadian suburbs.

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There are two reasons why now is the best time to change our strategy.

1. As I write this, there is a 82 percent chance from a minority government to our next Parliament. A typical minority government lasts 12 to 24 months, and the ruling party will double its efforts to woo voters in the constituencies it narrowly won and the constituencies they need to advance to form a majority. We have already seen the liberal minority government develop programs for suburban parents, such as investments in early learning and child care. By building the capacity for movement on these crucial journeys, we can set the agenda for urgent climate action that aligns with science.

2. The difference between urban and suburban perceptions of the climate crisis has been significantly reduced. Throughout 905, a key region needed to form government, more suburban Canadians view climate change as a threat than ever before. A 2018 study on Canadian climate opinions coming out of the Université de Montréal shows only small differences between urban and suburban Canadians on key questions such as “My province has already felt the negative effects of climate change” and “Climate change will hurt me personally.”

These trends are consistent in other strategic regions, such as the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and Quebec. Furthermore, extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change threaten both urban and suburban populations. There is now a clear connection between the climate emergency and forest fires, heat domes and heat waves.

By investing resources to activate suburban districts, we can mobilize hundreds of thousands of new Canadians to put climate change at the ballot box. Once the parties realize his path to government formation is tied to climate voters, they will move to align with the action that is needed.

A strategic shift to the Canadian suburbs can seem overwhelming before the next election. Fortunately, we don’t have to boil the ocean to make an impact. Many of these suburban districts are likely to be decided with very small voting margins, which means that we only need to activate a few thousand new Canadians on each trip.

Adding 100,000 suburban members to our climate movement in two years will lead to the policies necessary to avoid the worst of the climate crisis.

Aaron Myran is Co-Founder and CEO of Future Majority.