The war in ukraine it could cost a point of global growth over a year if its effects on energy and financial markets endure, warned Thursday the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The international organization calculates this loss in a report from the beginning of the offensive launched by Russia in Ukraine on February 24, which could also add 2.5 points to world inflation and generate “a deep recession in Russia”.
Outside of Russia and Ukraine, the consequences would be felt mainly in Europe, a continent dependent on the supply of raw materials, food and energy from both countries. The conflict could subtract 1.4 points from growth in the Eurozone.
The countries “that have a common border with Russia or Ukraine” are the ones that are going to feel the impact the most, while hosting the majority of refugees from Ukraine, according to the Paris-based organization, which has 38 member countries. .
The governments could mitigate the impact on the economy with a “specific fiscal support”, avoiding feeding too much price rise. Inflation is already at elevated levels around the world, fueled above all by energy.
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 0.25-0.50%, in its first increase since 2018, to tackle inflation at a 40-year high.
The organization also warns of the risk of a “sharp increase in poverty and hunger”, especially in developing economies if the supply of wheat from Russia and Ukraine is completely cut off.
The belligerent countries represent 30% of world exports of wheat, 20% of corn, mineral fertilizers and natural gas, and 11% of oil, estimates the OECD.