Two weeks ago the Secretary General of the UN, Antonio Guterres, visited Moscow to meet with President Putin. He also did it with President Zelenski, of Ukraine, in kyiv. While Guterres was in this city, Russian bombs exploded there. Sinister message of an invasion that is a humanitarian catastrophe.
The global panorama is a sum of calamities: the responses to the predatory effect of climate change are regrettable; there is a loss of biodiversity that contributes to the destruction of nature; the Covid-19 pandemic has killed 15 million people, destroyed companies, jobs, families, coexistence; there is an increase in the cost of energy and food; the war in Ukraine has produced about 9 million refugees; the world is affected by an inflationary process and economic stagnation. The war has interrupted supplies of corn, gas, metals, oil, wheat and basic inputs such as fertilizers made from natural gas. The combination of these limitations is exacerbating the presence of a world food crisis that produces greater poverty and hunger in the world. In the face of this, what are the international institutions doing? They argue, but they do not resolve. That is why populisms arise. In other times, the high level of acceptance that Marine Le Pen, of the extreme right, has in France would be inconceivable, and that makes it foreseeable that in the next elections he could win.
If the models of economic growth worldwide have lost strength and effectiveness, why not redesign them? The world is in need of a new Bretton Woods that unites governments, business, finance, academics and civil society. It would mean overcoming current schemes characterized by rigidity and the underrepresentation of emerging market countries.
We have reached a socioeconomic and environmental crisis in the world that does not improve the human condition.
In defense of nature, economist Margaret Kuhlow says: “With more than $44 trillion in economic value at risk from the loss of nature, solutions are required. Initiating a reform to achieve a fairer and greener world must be a priority”.
But the transition is just beginning and decisions are needed for a consistent path. For now, the world needs 100 million barrels of oil per day for the next two decades, in addition to a growing volume of natural gas. What is also happening is that the main providers are changing.
Putin’s gas war has united European countries. The European Commission estimates to reduce dependence on Russian gas by two thirds this year.
As if that were not enough, a cold war is also taking place between the United States and China, which contributes to inflationary processes and stagnation. It affects supply chains and trade in technology, which are critical to the global economy. These countries are trapped by a destructive strategic competition that will affect them as well as the whole world. But, in addition, adding fire to the bonfire is China’s cautious alliance with Russia.
China and Russia, says Henry Kissinger, in a historical appreciation, are dissatisfied powers in the world order, who would like to change. through weapons, trade war or cyber attacks.