President López Obrador asked President Biden to invite all countries in the region to the next Summit of the Americas. AMLO has conditioned his participation if Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela are excluded from this Summit, and it has been mentioned that some other leaders could adopt this same position.
What can Mexico gain by siding with dictatorships and confronting such an important trade ally? At first glance, sending this message to our main economic partner is indefensible, especially if the United States decides to maintain its position on the side of democratic defense.
On the one hand, siding with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua contrasts with the defense of democracy that our President constantly makes; it is a fact that the citizens of these three countries lack free elections and real political rights. As much as there is criticism of our electoral system, in Mexico there is alternation and serious institutions that allowed the democratization of the country. Ideologies aside, would any Mexican politician like to be an opposition in one of those 3 countries?
In diplomatic matters, although Mexico has maintained intimate ties with Cuba and has condemned the blockade on numerous occasions, the reality is different with Venezuela and Nicaragua, with whom we have few issues in common. Cuba has become a champion of diplomacy and reaches latitudes where we have never been able; for example, the island has around 30 embassies in Africa while we only have eight. Havana cannot be ignored on the multilateral board; on the contrary, appealing to the help that we have always given to Cuba, we should seek its cooperation to expand our relations in Africa.
Politics is not linear, conjunctures can redefine even the decisions that seemed more stable. Until now, it is unlikely that President Biden will change his decision considering that the Summit’s agenda includes the defense of democracy and freedoms. Although the criticism that the US has not left a democratizing message in the countries where it intervenes is valid (just seeing the result in Afghanistan makes one’s skin crawl), it will be Biden who decides the call for the Summit.
The world is not the same as it was a few months ago. The pandemic has affected everything from our health to production chains, and the invasion of Ukraine has increased the prices of fuel, food and fertilizers. The United States goes to legislative elections in November in full dissatisfaction with inflation and Republican criticism of Democratic immigration policy.
But what if the White House decides to change its narrative and move – once again – to the side of pragmatism? The United States’ agenda in the region has direct repercussions on the November electoral board: Expanding crude oil production in Venezuela can reduce fuel costs (Washington and Caracas have already started talks on the matter), an agreement with Cuba and Nicaragua it may reduce some migratory pressures, and probably the most important thing in geopolitical terms is that this may be the long-awaited juncture for the United States to withdraw Russian influence from the region. The dialogues with Cuba are not new, they would not surprise the Democratic electorate, but achieving new political balances and a united America would not only be a victory for AMLO, but also a powerful message for Biden in the face of an election in which he should arrive stronger.