The United States and Israel at a turning point over Rafah

(Washington) By suspending a delivery of bombs to Israel, for the first time since the start of the war, the United States is walking the talk and sending a clear message to its ally about Rafah.

The strength of American support will depend on how Israel conducts its military operations in the Palestinian city, tested in the face of the deadly Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip in retaliation for the unprecedented Hamas attack on October 7. .

President Joe Biden’s Democratic administration has already taken more modest steps to demonstrate its displeasure with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including imposing sanctions on extremist Israeli settlers, but has so far resisted calls to condition its military aid.

The American Minister of Defense, Lloyd Austin, confirmed on Wednesday before a parliamentary committee the suspension of this delivery of ammunition and bombs.

“We stopped a shipment of high-yield ammunition” for Israel, but we have not “made a final decision on what to do with that shipment,” he said.

According to a senior American official on condition of anonymity, this shipment consisting of “1,800 bombs of 2,000 pounds (907 kg) and 1,700 bombs of 500 pounds (226 kg)” was suspended last week, while the Israeli army was preparing to launch a “limited” offensive according to her in Rafah, which some fear as being the prelude to a major assault.

“Taken seriously” pressure

And the United States is reviewing other deliveries, said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, while judging that Israel had not yet launched “a large-scale operation”.

The announcement comes at a delicate time for the Biden administration, which is expected to submit a much-anticipated report to Congress this week on whether Israel’s use of U.S. weapons complies with international law and, thereby, respects the American law.

Washington repeated warnings against Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, forcefully asserting its opposition to any major offensive in the city in the south of the Gaza Strip, where 1.4 million Palestinians have found refuge, many having fled the bombings in the north.

The impact of this decision, however, remains to be measured.

“I can’t imagine that American dissatisfaction with the prospect of an invasion of Rafah does not weigh heavily in the Israeli government’s calculations,” said Jon Alterman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. .

“At the same time, the Israelis also make their own calculations,” he adds.

Another expert, Raphael Cohen, from the RAND research center, wants to believe: “despite Netanyahu’s rhetoric, Israel takes American pressure very seriously”, recalling for example that Israel has opened several crossing points in the Gaza Strip under pressure from the United States, most recently at Kerem Shalom.

“That said, I think it will be difficult for Netanyahu to completely abandon the operation in Rafah,” he said.

Despite international condemnations, the Israeli Prime Minister promised to launch this offensive, which he believes is essential to destroy the last battalions of the Islamist movement in the Palestinian territory.

“Levers”

On a strictly military level, everything depends “on the depth of Israel’s stocks”, which retains a large quantity of bombs but some of whose stocks have been exhausted by the seven months of war, notes Raphael Cohen.

In the past, American pressure has forced Israel to bend. In 1991, Israel reluctantly participated in the Madrid conference that led to a peace process with the Palestinians, after then-President George HW Bush blocked US loan guarantees for settlement construction. .

With $3 billion annually, the United States is Israel’s main donor of funds and weapons and even sent a shipment of munitions at the start of the war.

If there is no question for Washington of calling into question long-term security aid, for example for the “Iron Dome” anti-aircraft shield, which demonstrated its formidable effectiveness after the attack on Iran on April 14, calls are becoming more and more numerous to condition American military aid.

What’s more, in the middle of an election year in the United States, and while pro-Palestinian demonstrations are shaking many American campuses.

The Republican opposition castigated this “scandalous” decision to suspend the delivery of weapons.

Left-wing senator Bernie Sanders called on the American president to “use all his levers” to put pressure on Israel.

“We can no longer be complicit in this horrible war against the Palestinian people,” he said in a statement.