Expectations were low for the Conservatives in local elections, and rightly so. A new TUC survey shows that a whopping 73 percent of people think the government is sitting idly by as rising inflation hits their standard of living.
Voters are also rightly appalled by the conduct of the first British prime minister to break the law in office. AN most voters believe Boris Johnson has lied. Both he and the Chancellor have been fined by the police, with more fines likely to come in the coming days as the Metropolitan Police end their self-imposed electoral purdah.
In the most favorable circumstances possible: with the Government overseeing the economic crisis, the Prime Minister’s integrity in tatters and serious scandals involving two MPs who have been forced to resign (Imran Ahmad Khan at Wakefield and Neil Parish at Tiverton & Honiton ).
But as Friday dawned, Labor had gained London councillors, but overall had a net loss of seats in England outside London. That may change as results are released today, but clearly this is not the progress Labor should be making.
Keir Starmer and his team will rightly celebrate victories at Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet, but once those victories are celebrated they must also reflect on why and how Labor lost control of Hull council and regressed in the rest of England, losing councilors in areas. from Bolton to Thurrock, from Sandwell to Harlow. Those are the seats Labor needs to win to form the next government.
The says pollster James Johnson, “We are by no stretch of the imagination seeing a seismic recovery for Labour.” The irreproachable electoral guru Sir John Curtice told the BBC’s Huw Edwards that Labor should be “somewhat disappointed” and that the party was “not necessarily on track to be the biggest party in the next election”.
The Conservatives have fared poorly, but the relatively larger gains have gone to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
After losing four general elections in a row (with the exception of 2017, each defeat gets worse), Labor needs to re-evaluate its strategy. Neither wing of the party has a monopoly on blame, nor does it have a monopoly on wisdom.
The Labor leadership must also focus on uniting the party. Labor trusts its activists to succeed. Telling large swathes of them that they are not welcome or allies informing the press just days before the election that the Labor Party’s left-wing MPs should be purged.
Across the country, outside of some areas with vibrant local parties, such as Wandsworth and Worthing, many local organizers have reported fewer Labor members campaigning.
Anecdotal evidence is piling up, as the results come in, that voter turnout is down, or what political sociologist Paula Surridge of the University of Bristol describes as “a heavy dose of ‘neither of these two thanks'” . Pre-election polls showed that one in five Conservative voters did not know how they would vote now, but only one in 17 said they would switch to Labour.
At this stage of the political cycle, in the medium term after 12 years of Conservative rule, and with the Prime Minister and the economy in crisis, Labor should be better off.
Keir Starmer was elected Labor Leader on a promise to uphold the party’s bold and popular policies, unite the party and be a professional and effective leader. Kindly, he has work to do on all three fronts.
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A member of the Shadow Cabinet complained to me in the early hours of the morning that “we have nothing to say” in terms of positive policies that Labor is putting forward in key cost-of-living areas.
That needs to change. People need a reason to cast their vote. A reason not to vote Conservative is one thing, but people must be enthusiastic about voting positively for Labour.
Looking ahead to this election, I wrote last week that the problem with Labor is that it largely inspires indifference. That indifference is better than the contempt the Johnson regime inspires, but it may not be enough.
It has been shown that it is not enough, and Labor still has a lot to prove. The Tories are giving them every opportunity, now they must take advantage of them.
Andrew Fisher was Labor Party Executive Director for Policy from 2016 to 2019. He is the author of the failed experiment – a book on UK economic policy and the financial crisis of 2007/08
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