The skate: play with rhythm

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On Friday I wrote about how the Canucks manage their rhythm with Bruce Boudreau.

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They are taking fewer penalties and, if you believe public expected goals models, which weigh each shot against the historical probability of scoring, they are positive.

I spoke to industry analysts who see the same picture, but cautioned that they remain a middle lineup in the bigger picture.

This is what was predicted: a team that would need a few breaks to make the playoffs, but was far from a sure thing to make the postseason, let alone a contender.

Bruce Boudreau knows what this team needs: fewer big-bodied blueliners, more guys who play the game fast.

Boudreau juggled his defense matchups on Saturday, pushing Tucker Poolman to play Quinn Hughes, leaving Luke Schenn to play Brad Hunt.

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Boudreau said he was happy with Poolman, who looked tidy alongside Hughes, something that has rarely been the case for the lanky blueliner this year.

“We still have the same kind of problems,” Boudreau said.

To understand how the Canucks have performed this season, I had a good chat with Petbugs, an old friend from the Canucks Army. Years ago he gave a great presentation at the Vancouver Hockey Analytics Conference on the concept of rhythm.

He found teams that shoot more, score more. It’s all about the shooting volume and scoring ability of the average NHLer.

But he also found that the faster you play, the higher the risk of conceding goals, which makes sense because a shot is a loss of possession. Teams that are good defensively have less risk of conceding a goal as a result of a shot.

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Teams that don’t win a lot are invariably not very good defensively.

Petbugs sent out a couple of interesting charts on Friday and the quality of the Canucks’ shots declines as they take a lead greater than the league average and have had worse shots overall. That was something we have seen throughout the season, although in the first stage with Boudreau that trend seemed to have changed.

Interestingly, when games have been tied, they have been playing “faster” games than the league as a whole.

What we found is that the Canucks have been solid when the game is tied or they’re chasing play, but they’ve struggled to control what few upsides they had.

They have also done well in blocking the opposition’s shot quality when they are in the league, a good thing when they have a goalkeeper as good as Thatcher Demko.

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the straight line

Quite a fact in the 32 thoughts of this week:

29 One person very happy to see Bruce Boudreau’s early success in Vancouver is Russ Courtnall. Courtnall, who played in 1,029 NHL games, attended his first training camp in 1983, months after being drafted by Toronto. That was Boudreau’s eighth and final season in the Maple Leafs organization, though he would only play in AHL St. Catharines that year.

“I think they put me next to him in the locker room on purpose,” Courtnall said Monday. “You know how it is in training camp. The Maple Leafs dress up in their clubhouse, while minor league rookies and veterans are across the hall. That’s where it was and everyone who is there wants to get to the other room.” Courtnall said there was no physical hazing, but some of the veterans tried to make his life uncomfortable. “Bruce was so good to me. He would tell me to ignore those guys. I don’t remember the names of any of the assholes, but I do remember Bruce.”

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Courtnall, in case you haven’t been following him, is a good friend of Roberto Aquilini. It’s a safe bet that Boudreau was Courtnall’s suggestion to the Aquilinis.

We know that your brother Geoff has advised Francesco Aquilini in the past.

The role of the walker

I wonder what will be the role of Scott Walker in the future. It was a surprise when he left the team in 2019, but he proved to be the canary in the coal mine over the contention in the Canucks’ exploration project.

Walker, who was in player development, was a scouting sounding board for Judd Brackett and others.

But he was clearly frustrated and went to Arizona, which was far from a stable situation.

He has returned as an assistant coach, but could he look better in the coming seasons?

GM

Matt Sekeres added another name to the scouting mix on Friday: Sean Burke, who has a background in hockey coaching and management.

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Burke seems to be well liked, but he was convicted of assaulting his ex-wife in 1997.

radio rights

Sportsnet 650 held an exclusive trading window, which has now closed, to retain the Canucks’ radio rights. YYZ Sports Media’s Jonah broke the scoop on Saturday.

Rogers is making changes to his management structure and has invested heavily in on-air collaborators this season.

There is not going to be a bidding war. Rogers got the rights to TSN 1040 in 2017 and created 650 because of his score. But the ratings are intermittent, so one wonders how much interest Rogers would keep in the station if they didn’t own the radio rights to the Canucks.

One source told me he thinks CKNW has shown interest and may make a low offer, perhaps as little as $200,000 a season.

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“I wouldn’t be surprised by changes to the top of Rogers that 650 doesn’t retain the rights.”

Another noted that Corus, who owns CKNW, has the rights to the Winnipeg Jets.

Trocheck

I found myself thinking back to the 2020 trade deadline, when the old Panther was a hot commodity on the trade market. The Canucks made some inquiries, but got nowhere.

Adam Gaudette’s name was in the mix, but it would have taken more to bring the gritty two-way center. It was suggested that Troy Stecher might have done it.

the explorers

I asked Jim Rutherford two weeks ago what changes he needs to make to operations. He talked about adding personnel to the analytics — some people might wonder about Jason Karmanos, but the former Pittsburgh AGM has been assigned a big role in Buffalo, so there’s little reason to think he’ll be leaving — and hinted he’s also looking in the exploration department. .

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New AGM Derek Clancey is evaluating the staff he has inherited on both the amateur and professional scouting sides.

border nonsense

Boudreau is the hopeful Ashton Sautner, who is isolating in Ft. Lauderdale until at least Monday, could rejoin the team in Nashville for Tuesday’s game.

And that? The experiences of Brock Boeser, Justin Dowling and Phil Di Giuseppe at the Canadian border last week are examples. Despite public assurances that arriving with negative tests after their five-day isolation would be enough to return to Canada, a quarantine officer determined that they still needed to be quarantined.

The science of the NHL’s COVID testing policy is clear: If the infection has resolved clinically, and there are no symptoms, and the test is negative, there is no risk of infection.

Perhaps the problem at the border was unavoidable, but it sheds light on owner Francesco Aquilini’s decision to fire Chris Gear in December. One of Gear’s duties was dealing with immigration matters.

It has left the Canucks flying blind on cross-border issues.

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