A consensus has been formed around the idea that, in effect, inflation is a serious economic problem that directly affects the segments of the population that have fewer resources, which translates into strong social impacts with severe political repercussions. for governments. Our country, like the rest of the economies, is suffering from this illness that may last for some time. Under this logic, the government is looking for the means so that this inflationary episode is the least harmful. The problem lies in our regulatory rigidity, the lack of economic tools and the little capacity we have to achieve rapid changes in the approach to generating investments, coupled with the notable deficiencies in the real social penetration of fiscal and monetary policies. For our country, the forecasts are for zero growth for the administration of President López Obrador; In this sense, the call must be for national unity, for investment and to avoid permanent damage to the economic structure.
Thus, the constant increase in the price level of goods and services presupposes instability in all orders, with strong social mobilizations as we already see in Europe and an impact on electoral preferences as we will see in the future. At the moment, the high levels of inflation, product of the crisis that the globally interconnected productive sectors are experiencing, is altering the balance of risks of a good part of the economies. The foregoing is due to the fact that for years the developed economies were transferring their productive capacities outside their borders to achieve higher profits thanks to significantly cheaper labor. When the pandemic arrived, the production chains began to disengage; At the moment, the situation is worsening since the exit of the Covid is being extremely uneven, in particular due to the fiasco in which the Chinese vaccines resulted, which has that country still struggling with the virus, to which is added the invasion of Russia to Ukraine. The Ford Fiesta car, for example, is manufactured in Germany, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, China, India, and South Africa, but it is not sold in Canada and the US. In addition, it has auto parts from 17 different countries, which represents the degree of integration and diversification that at the same time makes the international economic system very vulnerable. The situation becomes serious when instead of a car, we talk about basic food or key services such as education or health. Re-synchronizing this entire production chain, re-establishing the supply of energy and food, as well as establishing a minimum sanitary floor in the world is going to take much longer than expected, meanwhile, we will see shortages, strong social tensions and greater poverty. These facts force us to rethink the financial and commercial architecture of the world.
Doctor of Economic Development and Law and Philosophy
AUCTORITAS
Professor at the Universidad Panamericana, Ibero and TEC. He has worked at the Bank of Mexico, the Ministry of Finance, the Presidency of the Republic and in Washington, DC. He is the author of books on economic history, financial regulation, monetary policy, economics, and ethics.