The setback to the social spending plan in the US makes the end of the year bitter for Biden

The year does not end as the president of U.S, Joe Biden, I would have liked. The inflation galloping hits the pockets and the spirits despite the good situation of an economy driven by the plan of 1.9 trillion dollars of aid implemented in the face of the pandemic, with perspectives and growth data unparalleled in several decades, the unemployment rate in 4.2% and child poverty reduced by 50%. Although 72% of the American adult population is vaccinated, the percentage lags behind that of other advanced countries and the booster injections are not going at the desired rate, bad news now that the omicron variant shakes a citizenry, and a few resources doctors, exhausted.

The hardest blow to Biden’s presidency, already seriously declining in poll ratings since the chaotic pullout of troops from Afghanistan in the summer (he has an approval rating of just 43.5%, according to the Real Clear average). Politics), has reached him, however, in the last week and from his own party. Last Sunday the senator from West Virginia Joe Manchin announced in a speech on FoxNews that it will not vote for ‘Build Back Better’, Biden’s mammoth investment plan for healthcare, childcare and climate initiatives.

Even after cuts and modifications to respond to Manchin’s demands that lowered the amount of the plan from the 3.5 trillion dollars in 10 years approved by the Lower House to 1.75 trillion, the package would have represented the greatest social transformation of the country. USA promoted by the federal government in decades. It was also central to Biden’s agenda to fight against climate emergency. In short, it was the main legislative bet of the president. And it has remained in purgatory, intensifying the schism between factions of the Democratic Party and darkening the prospects of the formation ahead of the legislative elections of 2022.

A double hit

The announcement of Manchin, a state-moderated senator that Donald Trump won by 40 points and publicly concerned about inflation but also singled out for his interests in the coal industry and the large donations he receives from the fossil fuel sectors, it was a blow that caused a irate reaction from the White House. He has also unleashed harsh criticism of the senator within the party, especially but not only from the progressive sector. And it has also weakened the president in its own ranks.

At the beginning of November, Biden managed to pass with bipartisan support another big legislative bet, the infrastructure plan. He did so overcoming the reluctance of the progressive wing of his party to separate the two bills, which were being negotiated at the same time. The president assured them to convince them that he had the votes to carry out the social spending plan and obtained the green light (although six Democratic congressmen voted against). And now there is a recrimination of the type “we warned it” from those who warned that what has happened would end up happening: that Manchin, with the investment in infrastructure already approved, would not support the one that is even more transformative.

The way forward

Biden doesn’t throw in the towel and on Tuesday he assured that they will continue talking to move forward with some version of the plan. Also the Democratic leader of the upper house, Chuck Schumer, has promised a vote in January. But what happened has shown the soft spot of the president to carry out his agenda with as little control of Congress as he has, a weakness that calls into question another priority on the agenda of the White House and in the party: to carry out legislative initiatives to protect the voting rights, whose main proposal the Republicans have already prevented three times from even reaching a debate.

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Now there are different paths for Biden. The congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for example, this week urged you to be more forceful about the possibility of ending the filibusterism in the Senate (an option on which it has been lukewarm and to which Manchin and other moderate senators such as Kyrsten Sinema have so far opposed) and to rely more on the executive power. “Time is running out, we have to move and use alternative roads,” said the New Yorker. Only a few hours later, this Wednesday, the president demonstrated that capacity by prolonging the pause in the return of funds for three months. federal student loans that was approved during the pandemic.

Others suggest that, rather than keep trying to tweak the ‘Build Back Better’ to gain Manchin’s support, bet on raising separate bills for different aspects of the plan, such as making permanent tax benefits per child approved in pandemic, paid leave due to family or illness, expansions of the public healthcare or some of the incentives for clean energies. “Some of the more popular provisions could attract enough Republican votes to become law if they were individual. And if not, Republicans would be forced to vote publicly against very popular ideas and face Democratic criticism in legislatures,” Elaine Karmack wrote for the Brookings Institution.