August closed as the most expensive month in history in the price of electricity, although unfortunately September is going to overcome it in a broad way. Futures for the remainder of 2021 are even more expensive, and in the medium term there does not seem to be an immediate solution in sight. In addition, it is not at all ruled out that, analyzing the gas and CO2 futures markets, with the arrival of winter we break the barrier of 200 euros per megawatt hour before the end of the year.
We are facing a problem that does not concern only Spain. The trend of bullish prices are repeated in all European countriesThe CO2 emission rights and the high price of gas being the main reasons to explain the current situation that undoubtedly reduces European industrial competitiveness.
This does not mean that it is not necessary to carry out a decarbonization process, at this point no one doubts how necessary it is. However, We must not underestimate the need to carry out this procedure in a balanced manner. and without leaving in the background the impulse to industrial activity, which we remember, is still in the process of recovery due to the pandemic.
Over the course of the year so far, companies have seen their energy bills increased by between 35 and 50%. If the situation continues as before, with little sign of changing – if we take into account the Fit for 55 of the European Commission and its latest statements, in which they indicated that these CO2 price levels are a reality that companies must accept as part of the energy transition-, the scenario will be completely unsustainable for the Spanish industrial fabric, which will face a very complex scenario until 2030.
Companies have seen their energy bills increased by between 35 and 50%
It is time to act before it is too late. I am referring to acting in the environmental aspect, to making decisions that help to combat the high prices of the invoices and to act at the institutional level, through the promotion of mechanisms that alleviate the pressure transferred to entrepreneurs and SMEs that, let’s not forget, in our country accounts for 98.99% of the total of all Spanish companies.
The environmental board has moved its pieces again: Brussels has forced the implementation of renewables to multiply by two current in just a decade, which together with the establishment of increasingly strict limits regarding the commercialization of emissions throughout the EU, together with other factors, is causing that by now we have reached the limit of 60 euros per tonne, exceeding the thresholds projected for 2030.
It would not hurt that, as a containment measure against the entry of third parties into the market, Brussels showed to the market a simple concern about the escalation of prices.
Nor is the legal insecurity that can generate some of the measures announced by the Government of Spain this week, since precisely, these investors will be the ones who will pay for a significant part of the new renewables that must be coupled to the system until 2030 to meet the objectives reduction of emissions proposed.
Companies should know that, given the increasing pressure of the futures market and an erroneous energy purchase strategy, we are beginning to detect cases of marketers that are breaking contracts with your clients with minimal notice.
If this situation occurs, our recommendation is always to not make a quick decision and without the advice of an expert. It is It is important that companies at this time do not commit to long-term contracts, in such an overvalued market, and be aware that it is possible to overcome this adverse situation with a strategy based on the short term.
Let’s be realistic and immediately take action on the matter to provide an oxygen balloon to our business fabric, since the impact of the measures taken by the Government so far has hardly affected companies.
Beyond the suspension of the generation tax -with a minimal impact and which has been extended until the end of the year-, we must add the measures incorporated this week with the reduction of the IEE from 5% to 0.5% (note that a percentage significant number of industrial clients already have an 85% exemption from this tax for their activity) and, finally, what has been baptized as gas reduction, which remains to be seen the impact it will have on the market and how it will be applied so that it is not “knocked down” in a few months or years in court.
Only taking into account the data and forecasts, the competitiveness of the European environment can be really affected by a silent carbon leakage to countries where the CO2 market is not suffering from this inflation exorbitant.
For a medium-sized company, all these fluctuations have caused an approximate increase of more than 200,000 euros, so it is not strange to be able to close 2022 with the departure of Spanish companies to other markets, such as Morocco, without going any further .
The fight against climate change is irrevocableBut we must not weigh down the industrial economy along the way, as there are balanced and profitable ways to carry out this transition. It is more than fair that the planet that we leave to our successors is in optimal conditions and in perfect harmony with the environment, but it is necessary to reconcile economic recovery and sustainability, because both concepts feed off each other and one cannot exist without the other. . Decarbonization is the future, but so is our industry, let’s not forget it.
*** Javier Diaz Carmona He is responsible for Ayming’s Energy consulting area.
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Reference-www.elespanol.com