The omicron variant causes less mortality in Spain than the 2018-2019 flu

The omicron variant, protagonist of the sixth wave of the pandemic in Spain, has caused an exponential growth in infections. However, this has not led to an increase in the mortality. The lower virulence of this strain promises some experts that we may be at the end of the pandemic stage to enter a endemic. The WHO has pointed out that this could occur throughout this 2022. The coronavirus would remain, now, as a virus similar to that of the gripe. With data in hand, it can be stated that the omicron variant, even with a greater number of cases, has caused fewer deaths in Spain than the 2019 flu, year before the pandemic.

According to figures from Carlos III Health InstituteBetween November 26, the date on which the WHO declared omicron a variant of concern, until December 30, a total of 1,163,733 coronavirus infections have been registered in Spain. This figure means that in just one month the virus has caused more than double the number of cases of the flu in 2019, when 490,000 cases were detected. Despite this higher incidence of infections, in these little more than 30 days ómicron has caused 1,450 deaths, just a quarter of the deaths (6,300) that were due to influenza in 2019.

In the 2018/2019 season, prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, primary care treated an estimated 490,000 cases of influenza. Hospitals registered 35,300 admissions of patients affected by this endemic virus. In the ucis, there were 2,500 critics. Only 54% of those over 64 had received the flu vaccine.

Some large companies have already noticed in their templates the different degree of impact of omicron, in relation to the previous variants of the coronavirus. This is the case, for example, of Mercadona. Company sources have assured that among the 3,500 workers who are currently affected by the covid, no serious case or hospitalization has been registered.

The first scientific studies already pointed out that omicron is much more transmissible than previous variants, but, on the other hand, it causes less severe symptoms. And new research supports this idea: this strain affects the lungs less and the throat more, a factor that would explain why it is more contagious but less deadly. The risk of omicron is not so much that it causes a more serious disease but that, due to the explosion of infections, the virus collapses the health system again.

Health authorities trust the booster dose of vaccine against covid as a way to reduce the incidence of this variant. In this sense, the WHO recalls that the vast majority of those hospitalized or deceased by coronavirus are unvaccinated people.

Peak imminent?

Different experts in the study of the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic have agreed this Sunday that next week could be the peak of infections for the omicron variant in Catalonia, where the latest data also suggest that case growth is not that strong like a few days ago.

Speaking to RAC-1, Clara Prats, member of the Computational Biology Research Group of the Polytechnic University of Barcelona (BIOCOMSC), has indicated that “if the data we are seeing really reflects what is happening, the peak of infections could be the first week of january“If it were not like that,” it would move us to the second, but it could be this one. “

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Believing that the New Year’s Eve party has more epidemiological risk than the Three Kings parades, Prats has argued that as of this Monday, the last two weeks can be compared “more reliably and see if there is still an upward trend or We are already on a descent, which will give us enough clues to know if the braking is real or not. “

For its part, Enric Alvarez, also from the BIOCOMSC, has said in an interview on Catalunya Ràdio, that the data from the last day suggest that infections “do not grow, at least, as before” and that “it is becoming increasingly difficult to detect new cases.” In his opinion, a pattern of “slow rise” is being followed, so it is possible that “next week we will have the peak, but it is not certain”. What does seem is that the cases “do not rise in such a strong way, but you can never be sure. Let’s hope to confirm it,” he concluded.