The Edmonton Oilers’ biggest wild card this upcoming season is …

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The Edmonton Oilers’ biggest wild card this upcoming season is …

By “wild card” I mean something that is difficult to predict and also an area where I can only make an educated guess about one player, something that is even more difficult to understand when it comes to incoming players like Duncan Keith and Warren. Foegele. who I didn’t see play last season.

Here is the list of the main wildcards in greasers:

  • Can Darnell Nurse keep scoring at the same rate? Probably.
    Nurse scored 1.43 points per 60 with uniform strength, the 16th highest total for a d-man in the NHL. Yes, I heard Nurse critics say, but he got so many points because he played a lot with Connor McDavid. New flash: Nurse is likely to play a large number of minutes with McDavid this year and every year they are together in Edmonton. If Nurse can keep skating, hitting hard shots and taking the puck to McDavid, he will continue to add strength points at a good pace, I strongly suspect. That being said, I expect his goal scoring total to come down from a personal record of 16. He scored those 16 goals on just 19 Grade A shots, and a lot of the goals came from Grade B shots. A great shooter like Leon Draisaitl scored. 31 goals with 92 Grade A shots last year. In other words, Nurse had great luck with his shot last year.
  • Can Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto recover from their abysmal level of even strength points? Probably.
    How bad were they? RNH scored just 1.18 points for every 60 last year, putting him at 343 of 432 forwards in the NHL. That’s terrible for a player who spent so much time with McDavid. Yamamoto was only slightly better, 1.39 points per 60, 293 of 432 range. Not good. Can they both go back to at least 2.0 points per 60, which is what second-row forwards tend to average with even strength? The Oilers have so many weapons in the Top 6 that it’s hard to imagine that coach Dave Tippet won’t find the right fit. I will suggest that RNH and Yamo fell apart last year, had some luck, and rarely found great or even good line chemistry. It’s a decent bet that all of those factors will change for the better next season and his score will rebound.
  • Can Jesse Puljujarvi get 20 goals and 40 points? Probable.
    With Zach Hyman on the scene, will Puljujarvi have a lot of power play time? I doubt it. But if, as expected, he records important minutes on the wing with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl as his center, 20 goals and 40 points should be within reach of those long arms. Puljujarvi getting 40 points is more of a decent bet than a wild card proposition.
  • Can Tyler Benson and Ryan McLeod make their mark as NHL players? Maybe.
    You never know with young players. Will they have the opportunity? Will they find a paper? Will they accept and deepen that role? Benson and McLeod are unlikely to be in the Top 6 forwards at the NHL level, although McLeod has a chance to break into Edmonton’s Core-12 if he can take the third centerline spot. Both players were the best AHLers last year, but having to adapt to new roles in a different and more challenging league, they are both definite wild cards.
  • Can Zack Kassian do enough to justify his contract? It is not probable.
    Kassian earned his four-year, $ 3.2 million contract in January 2020 thanks to his big scoring in the first half of that season, when he added 27 points in 39 online games with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Since then, he has played 47 games and has 12 points, which is more in line with his career scoring level. I doubt that Kassian can get his scoring magic back, not unless he’s teamed up with McDavid and Draisaitl again, which is unlikely. With all that in mind, Kassian is not a wild card. There’s an expectation for more of the same with Kassian, so a lot of punches and scowls, some just as defensive, and a few goals and assists here and there. It is much more a familiar card than a joker.
  • Can Evan Bouchard take on a top 4 role? Decent opportunity.
    His AHL score in 2019-20 spoke of a d-man with solid potential in the NHL’s top 4. His play in both Sweden and Edmonton last year spoke of the same thing. If it makes the Edmonton Top 4 this year, it won’t be a huge surprise.
  • Can Mike Smith have another good year? Maybe.
    He will be 39 years old. Before last year, he had two mediocre regular seasons, both plagued with stretches where he was injured and / or ineffective. But he had arguably the best year a 38-year-old goalie has ever had in the NHL. The funny thing about goalkeepers on the aging curve is that those who are still good at 38 can often be good for a few years, as seen with Dominik Hasek, who was a strong goalkeeper until age 42, Jaques Plante, good until 43, George Hainsworth, good until 42, Gump Worsley, good until 42, and Martin Brodeur and Ed Belfour, good until 41.
  • Can Duncan Keith hold his own in the second pair? Hmm.
    This is more difficult because I didn’t see Keith play every game last year. The criticism was mixed in Chicago, and some people who didn’t invest as much in ice shooting statistics liked them more than those who did. But given his excellent track record and devotion to fitness, there is a chance that Keith could play a lesser role than he did in the first couple in Chicago for the past 16 years.
  • Can Mikko Koskinen recover? Hmm.
    In his three NHL seasons, Kosk has had save percentages of .906 in 55 games, .917 in 38 games and .899 in 26 games. Will the real Mikko Koskinen be able to stand up, very, very tall? If we get the Kosk who was that good in 2019-20 I’d be surprised, but Kosk averaged that high level of play at 38 games, which is something. But who knows? I do not.

There are nine possible wild cards. There are others, including many minor issues, but the biggest question for me has to do with Cody Ceci.

He is the biggest wild card on the team.

At one point, the Edmonton Oilers considered trading Taylor Hall for Ceci. Ceci was a top 4 d-man in Ottawa for three years, but has never excelled in a top 4 role. He reportedly did much better in a late-duo role in Pittsburgh last season. His game, and Adam Larsson leaving the Oilers, earned him a four-year contract here at $ 3.25 million per. That’s Top 4 money.

My question on Ceci, crucial to the future of the Oilers, is whether or not she can rise as a Top 4 d-man.

Doing so can help the Oilers win big this year, allowing Evan Bouchard’s playing time to unfold.

And if he can, and if Bouchard develops, that will give Edmonton three right-hander d-men capable of hanging like Top 4 d-man, Ceci, Bouchard and Barrie. The Oilers probably can’t afford to keep all three, but by taking one out in a trade, Edmonton will have more cap room to retain vital players like Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto.

Essentially, a lot depends on Ceci’s performance. I’ve rarely seen him play, so I have little idea whether or not he can get the job done. That makes him, at least to me, the Oilers’ biggest wild card this year.

What do you think?

Reference-edmontonjournal.com

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