The coincidences of professional life meant that I was in Ottawa on February 29, 1984 and February 24, 1993. The day of the resignations of Pierre Trudeau and that of Brian Mulroney. And it’s hard not to think that these are two situations quite similar to the one in which Justin Trudeau finds himself today.
The fact remains that at the time, these resignations caused surprise, even if they were the subject of all speculation.
There are many differences with the current situation, but enough similarities that this can give us some keys to what the current Prime Minister could decide.
The first factor that can cause the departure of a sitting prime minister remains the attrition of power. At the time of their resignation, Pierre Trudeau and Brian Mulroney had been in power for a long time. Fifteen years for Pierre Trudeau. Almost nine years for Brian Mulroney. It’s currently a little over eight years for Justin Trudeau.
The attrition of power is often one of the main motivations for voters to change government.
The feeling that the Prime Minister has served his time, that he is no longer the right person for the job, and that it is time to replace him, sometimes even when the polls indicate that his main opponent does not have the best image, as is the case for the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, currently.
According to the most recent Angus Reid poll, the Conservatives would obtain 40% of the vote (compared to 23% for the Liberals and 21% for the New Democrats). But 52% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Conservative leader, compared to only 38% with favorable opinions.1. The change of government takes precedence over adherence to the ideas of the Conservative leader.
After eight years and a little more, the wear and tear of power could give Mr. Trudeau pause. Especially since the forecasts of seats in the House of Commons from the 338Canada site of Philippe J. Fournier – who is not often wrong – suggest a Conservative sweep with 210 seats. Ironically, in 1984 Brian Mulroney won with 211 seats…
But there is one major difference between Justin Trudeau’s situation and those of his father and Mr. Mulroney at the end of their last mandate, and that is time.
The next federal election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2025 – under the Fixed Elections Act – or sooner if the minority Liberal government loses a vote of confidence. Which should not happen before June 2025 if the agreement between the Liberals and the New Democrats holds.
Mr. Trudeau Sr. and Mr. Mulroney literally waited until the last minute before withdrawing. At the time of his resignation in February 1984, Pierre Trudeau, elected in February 1980, had been in power for four years. His mandate was therefore practically over.
Mr. Mulroney had pushed the deadline even further: he was in the fifth year of his mandate, the limit dictated by the Constitution. Moreover, his successor, Kim Campbell, had called the elections at the extreme limit permitted, that is, on September 8, 1993, for a vote on October 25, 1993.
In both cases – as in that of Justin Trudeau currently – all the polls showed a very unlikely re-election of the government in place. And in the case of John Turner in 1984 as in that of Kim Campbell in 1993, the slope to re-election proved too steep.
The same could be said of Justin Trudeau, except that he still has more than a year before the next election campaign begins – if, of course, the NDP maintains its support until then.
Justin Trudeau still has a little time before having to make a decision. But it is clear that, for him, the window for departure is approaching.
Because if the prime minister leaves politics, he must give the party time to find a new leader. Which involves a race and the organization of a leadership convention or an election by membership ballot, as is the case in the Liberal Party of Canada. We therefore need a few months during which we expect the resigning leader to act as interim leader of the party and, if necessary, as prime minister.
Which still leaves a few months for Mr. Trudeau to announce his decision and for a new leader to be chosen.
Today, Justin Trudeau says he is convinced that he is still the man for the job. But if polls continue to show otherwise, he will have to make a difficult decision.
And if the experience of his predecessors is any guide, the longer he waits, the more he will deprive his party of chances of retaining power, or, at the very least, of allowing it to form a solid opposition capable of preparing for a possible return. in power.
1. Consult the survey from the Angus Reid firm (in English)
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reference: www.lapresse.ca