The Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its third month, and as the conflict unfolds, it is clear there will be lasting repercussions. While we must begin by acknowledging that this unprovoked and unwarranted war of aggression is a humanitarian tragedy, there are lessons at various levels that must be recognized as we look to the future.
For starters, the diplomatic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been nothing short of remarkable. The constant engagement and summit meetings of the North Atlantic Council of NATO, the G7, the European Union and other ongoing multilateral and bilateral meetings are more vigorous than ever in decades. While the United Nations Security Council is paralyzed by the Russian veto, the UN General Assembly vote to condemn the Russian invasion it was a watershed.
Most of us take this level of commitment for granted, including responses from so-called Western democracies (including Japan and Australia). Outcomes such as NATO support for Ukraine and its fundamental right to self-defense under the Charter of the United Nations matter. Strong participation in allied meetings is also important, as is the april meeting of NATO foreign ministers that included all 30 NATO nations, as well as Ukraine, Georgia, Finland, Sweden, the European Union, and NATO’s Asia-Pacific partners: Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea.
Furthermore, the critical importance of leadership on both sides of the conflict cannot be overstated, and the contrast is stark. We have seen this in President Volodymyr Zelensky and the rest of the leadership in Ukraine and in Western democracies, which is in direct contrast to the small, insular, ill-informed, autocratic circle in the Kremlin, led by President Vladimir Putin. described by The Economist as “ruthless, deceitful, and prone to risky miscalculations”. The United States has provided leadership through our Secretaries of State and Defense and the administrator of USAID. Great credit must also be given to key figures such as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and other leaders around the world who have stood up and been counted. .
It is difficult to minimize the impact of millions of Ukrainian refugees migrating to other countries and thousands of internally displaced persons within Ukraine. Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and other countries deserve much credit for their outstanding support. USAID has also set a strong example with disaster relief response teams on the ground in Ukraine and financial assistancereflecting the obligation we all have to reduce the level of suffering within Ukraine and in Eastern Europe.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian armed forces continue to outperform and have already achieved a strategic victory by causing Moscow to significantly reduce reduce your goals in this war they are effectively challenging the Russian forces on land, air and sea. While the victims and the damage to Ukraine is tragic and we all hope for a ceasefire as soon as possible, the Ukrainian armed forces will continue to exceed expectations as long as the conflict lasts. Their determination and tactical expertise confuse the Russian forces, despite the numerical advantages presented by the latter.
Ukraine is also effectively absorbing and using Weapons from a wide range of supporting nations., including Canada, Slovakia, Sweden, Japan, Australia, Italy and other places. It is a visible testimony of the global posture displayed against the invasion of the Kremlin. Borrowing from President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the collective “arsenals of democraciesthey are making a difference, as the Ukrainian military is obtaining tools and putting them to effective use in the ongoing fight. All this has been supported by the reinforcement of NATO’s eastern flank by ground, air and naval forces from across the alliance, as they provide strong security guarantees.
It is also clear that the invasion of Ukraine represents a dramatic step backwards for Russia. The impact of diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, losses of military personnel and equipment, the exodus of talented youth, and the domestic crackdown on dissent will be long-lasting. It will be some time before Putin and his circle can fully rejoin the family of nations. The mounting evidence of Russian atrocities and war crimes in Ukraine will also have a lasting impact on the willingness of nations to engage with Moscow, and it will take years to recover from this stain.
Another result of this isolation will be Moscow’s greater reliance on ties with Beijing. As a result, Russia will increasingly become a junior partner, a change in the global dynamic that will be with us for years to come. Furthermore, in the context of the ongoing struggle between democracies and authoritarian regimes, history is not on the side of autocrats. The response of so many democratic nations, with economic sanctions, diplomatic support, military aid, and humanitarian assistance, is remarkable.
We must also fully acknowledge the example set by the Ukrainian government and people, as they visibly demonstrate how much they value and are willing to fight for their freedom.
The collective support of Ukraine in all its dimensions must be constant and lasting. The ongoing fight against Russian aggression is a marathon and not a sprint, and will require sustained military, humanitarian and diplomatic support, as well as no small measure of post-conflict reconstruction, on the order of another Marshall Plan.
As described above, the West can handle this while keeping efforts united while not neglecting other problem areas of the world. This can be effectively managed with allies working together to ensure the future of a sovereign, free and independent Ukraine.
Vice Admiral (Ret.) Robert B. Murrett is Professor of Practice at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School and Deputy Director of the Institute for Security Law and Policy.
Reference-thehill.com