It’s the world upside down. Fear campaigns have always been part of the debate on the political future of Quebec, but one-sided. Usually, it is always the federalists who use the argument of fear against the sovereignist project. But PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has just announced that he too could scare the world.
This time, it is the very survival of the Quebec people that is at stake, argues PSPP: “Quebecers must realize that our next meeting with history, because it will take place, is perhaps in very probably, our ultimate chance to give ourselves linguistic and cultural sustainability.” The last chance, nothing less.
In fact, in the argument of the leader of the Parti Québécois, there is one thing that is certain, one that is very probable and one that is not at all.
For him, it is certain that there will be a third referendum on sovereignty if the PQ is elected in the next elections. It is also “very likely” that this will be French Quebec’s last chance if Quebecers do not vote Yes.
But the thing that is far from certain is whether he will win his referendum.
When we analyze the figures from the most recent polls, we see that a referendum would result in approximately 60% of the votes for No, and 40% for Yes. Like the result of the first referendum in 1980.
Last month’s Léger poll also indicated that a quarter of voters preparing to vote for the Parti Québécois would vote No to a referendum on sovereignty.
The PQ is currently in first place in the electoral polls, but it is with only 34% of the votes. In a political system where five parties divide voters’ favors, that can give a plurality of seats, but when we promise to hold a referendum on sovereignty, 34% is not much.
In the circumstances, is it wise to promise Quebecers today that they will vote in a referendum on the “ultimate chance” of survival of a French Quebec?
The idea of holding a third referendum ensures the PQ leader will receive strong applause in the PQ National Council. But there are many sovereignists who are very uncomfortable with the very real possibility of a third losing referendum.
It would not be the end of French Quebec, but it would undoubtedly be the end of the political viability of the sovereignist option. Hence the idea which was the consensus before PSPP that we could not risk a third referendum as long as we were not certain of winning it.
This is why there are many sovereignists who do not believe that we should run this risk and who are very worried about the current approach of Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon.
Especially since it is far from certain that the apocalyptic tone now used by the leader of the PQ is the best way to convince voters to vote Yes. Especially since he did it again on Tuesday, speaking of the “deportations” and “executions” that Ottawa would have subjected to French-speakers.
It would be better to listen to his political opponent, but fellow sovereignist, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, who thinks that “to build a country (…) hope is more fruitful than resentment”.
It’s not all a dark federalist scheme. Thus, we can see in Justin Trudeau’s pre-election announcements a concerted offensive against Quebec’s skills, but most voters seem to see it more as a sign of panic from a Prime Minister who feels the rug slipping out from under his feet.
Likewise, we can see in the increase in temporary immigrants a great danger for French, but it is also and above all the consequence of a population which is aging very quickly. According to the Institut du Québec, for every 100 people aged 60 to 69 who leave the labor market, barely 86 people aged 20 to 29 enter it. In certain regions, such as Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, the proportion is even 10 retirements for every 6 young people who are ready to take over, observes the Quebec Employers’ Council.
It is not only a question of labor shortage, it is also a real danger for public finances and the capacity of the Quebec state to provide services. By the way, here is a problem for which sovereignty would provide no answer.
In this whole story, what also risks harming Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon is the temptation of arrogance.
We are more than two years away from the next election campaign and the PQ leader would do better to start preparing for it instead of acting as if it were in his pocket and immediately planning the next step.
But above all, he should admit that the debate on the political future of Quebec belongs neither to the Parti Québécois nor to its leader. It is up to Quebecers themselves who have no need to be told that if they do not vote the right way, they will trigger the Apocalypse.
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reference: www.lapresse.ca