The Tax Administration Service (SAT) foresees that the tax incentives for gasoline will be between 350,000 and 400,000 million pesos (mdp) for this year; this is almost three times more than the 104,076 million pesos of 2021.
Raquel Buenrostro Sánchez, head of the SAT, commented that in January there was an estimate of 500,000 million pesos of fiscal stimulus, but it has been recalculated due to the fluctuation in the international price of oil.
In the presentation of the Tax Management Report for the First Quarter, it was reported that the fiscal stimulus for gasoline was 48,550 million pesos, in the period. The figure is 12 times higher than that registered in the first quarter of 2021 (3,992 million pesos).
He explained that the Mexican government, unlike other countries that opted for a more orthodox policy to face the rise in international oil prices, implemented an anti-inflationary policy, in which the SAT contributes by stimulating diesel and gasoline.
Raquel Buenrostro clarified that the real impact of the complementary stimulus, announced on March 5, is not yet known, so it will be better reflected in the coming months. The SAT projected that the complementary fiscal stimulus in 2022 will be 13,000 million pesos per month on average.
In this context, the head of the SAT clarified that tax revenues will be slightly below what is stated in the 2022 Federation Revenue Law, but will grow more than in 2021, in real terms, because work is being done to offset the hole.
“In the projections we had that in March the collection fell and it did not happen, it grew. In addition, the stimulus (gasoline tax) was greater than estimated and even so we grew, ”she said at a press conference.
He also added that the drop in tax revenue will be offset by Pemex’s oil surplus.
At the end of March, tax revenues registered 1.1 trillion pesos, this represented an annual growth of 2.0%; Income Tax had a collection of 703,905 million pesos, an increase of 13.8%; the Value Added Tax collected 291,668 million pesos and the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) 75,030 million pesos, both suffered falls of 9.3 and 38.4%, respectively.
Buenrostro Sánchez added that the federal agency is developing additional collection strategies. The SAT reported that in January-March 2022, the additional efforts left an amount of 139,934 million pesos. This is a growth of 17.7% per year.
Collection from large taxpayers, through collection efficiency without the need for judicialization, left 42,801 million pesos to the treasury, which is a real growth of 7.3% compared to the same period in 2021.
The SAT reported that 270 companies with annual revenues greater than 1,500 million pesos have been audited. The total collection of large taxpayers was 608,513 million pesos, 12.8% higher than the same period in 2021.
For this year, it is expected to control between 900 and 1,000 large taxpayers to collect 200,000 million pesos, according to Antonio Martínez Dagnino, general administrator of large taxpayers.
Meanwhile, the extra work in the control acts and in the collection were 50,805 million pesos and 46,328 million pesos, respectively. Both items of collection efficiency without the need for judicialization had annual increases of 0.2 and 63.8%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Obligation Compliance Program, the Deep Surveillance Program and through coercive collection, which also seeks efficiency in collection, left additional income of 46,328 million pesos in the first quarter, an increase of 63.8% per year.
Contraband and stimulus of the IEPS
The federal tax collection has been facing a problem in fuel smuggling for several years, since criminals avoid paying the corresponding IEPS. However, the SAT has seen an increase in fuel imports as a result of the fiscal stimulus.
At the end of March 2022, imports of gasoline and diesel increased 5.6% annually due “in part to the fact that since March the IEPS quotas per liter have remained at zero, even in that month a complementary stimulus was implemented, which it reduces the incentives for evasion due to technical smuggling”, said the SAT.
Fuel smuggling reached 16.9 million barrels in the first three months of 2022, a decrease of 32% compared to the same period last year.