The war in Ukraine is reshaping the european geopolitical order in a completely unimaginable way weeks before the troops of Vladimir Putin invaded their Ukrainian neighbor. The rearmament of Germany, with an investment of 100,000 million euros in Defending and the commitment to exceed 2% of its GDP in just two years in military expensesnot only marks the biggest shift in German security policy since the WWIIbut could very soon turn the richest country in Europe in the third that more spend on defense in the world behind the United States and China. It’s just the beginning because so much Finland What Sweden finalize their decision to request their entry into NATOa step that would bury a long history of military neutralityrestated as non-alignment in the last decades.
Everything is going extremely fast in both countries. So much so that some voices accuse their leaders of having been carried away by “hysteria” that has generated the war in ukraine. If nothing goes wrong, both capitals will announce their decision to middle of Mayafter having accelerated the analysis of the implications that its entry into the Atlantic Alliance. “We are on our way to NATO. The Government is preparing the population and especially the bases of the social democratic party –historically opposed to accession– with the message that there is a new reality in Europe”, says Mikael Holmström, security correspondent for ‘Dagens Nyheter’, the most prestigious newspaper in Sweden. “In Parliament there is a favorable majority if we enter jointly with finland in NATO & rdquor ;.
Both countries not only share a border and a very narrow military relationshipbut were the same country for 600 years, until the bulk of the finnish territory was torn from the swedish krona in 1809 to fall into the hands of tsarist empire until its independence 1917. That war with russia and another with Norway five years later they are the only ones he has freed Sweden in more than 200 years, an anomaly in the bloody European history. Many Swedes blame this luck of eternal peace to its military neutrality, which was combined during the Cold War with an imposing army, which came to have the fourth largest air force in the world. And while his Nordic brothers (Norway, Iceland Y Denmark) participated in the founding of NATO in 1949, Stockholm was left out to make the balancing a virtue.
the finnish wars
“Making sure that Finland did not fall under the soviet yokewas for Sweden a vital interest & rdquor ;, its former prime minister recently wrote, carl bildt. “This consideration was the main reason for the Swedish armed neutrality policy during the Cold War & rdquor ;. For Finland, NATO was not even an option until 1992. With a shared border with Russia of over 1,300 kilometersIt was invaded by the Soviet Union during World War II, from which it defended itself through two wars that cost it a significant stretch of its territory, including its most cosmopolitan city, vyborg. The friendship treaty with the USSR tied Helsinki’s hands to get closer militarily to the West and cemented its strict position of non-alignment.
“The Finns are very proud of how they have handled Russia. they call it pragmatism. There have been crises, but they have always maintained the open lines with the Kremlin, even since the beginning of the war in Ukraine & rdquor ;, says Gunilla Herlof, research director of the Peace Institute of the Aland Islands (Finland). For years, both Helsinki and Stockholm –members of the European Union– cooperate with NATO and participate in their military maneuvers, but this war has changed everything. Both countries once again feel threatened by the Kremlin and the Putin’s imperial appetite. For the first time in history, the majority of finns They are in favor of joining the Atlantic Alliance, 68% in the latest polls. In Sweden the margin is lower, but exceeds 60% if it is done in unison with Helsinki.
The Russian warnings
Nobody misses the dilemma that hides the decision, after Putin raised NATO’s expansion to the east as one of the reasons for invading Ukraine. The Kremlin warned in December that the entry of both countries into its organization chart “would have serious political and military consequences”. And in March, with the Ukrainian collapse already underway, the former Russian president Dimitri Medvedev stated that, if accession is consummated, Moscow will be forced to reinforce its military forces in the Baltic and could deploy nuclear weapons and supersonic missiles in the enclave of Kaliningradlocated off the Swedish coast and sandwiched between Poland Y Lithuania.
Those words are more than ethereal threats. Last March, during joint Swedish-Finnish military exercises, several Russian nuclear fighters entered Swedish airspace, according to local press reports. And a few weeks later the Finnish government denounced several cyberattacks against your government websites. “The Russians feel that the West has taken advantage of them since the collapse of the USSR, especially with the expansion of NATO & rdquor ;, says Linus Hagström, a professor at the Swedish Defense University, opposed to his country’s entry into NATO. “And that resentmentthat feeling of insult and humiliationit can have consequences, as we are seeing in Ukraine & rdquor ;.
His attitude has now become a minority, compared to that expressed by Gunilla Herlof. “Putin is trying to dictate the security policy of our two countries. It is unacceptable. We have come under direct threat and, although we have been rearming for some years, we cannot guarantee our safety without the help of other countries & rdquor ;, affirms the security expert. Unlike Finland, which has the largest reservist force in all of EuropeSweden largely dismantled its military after the end of the Cold War and, since the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014works against the clock to increase its military capacity.
The fear of a hybrid war
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The more than likely entry of both countries into NATO, which has been enthusiastically received by its Secretary General, would have to be approved unanimously for all its members. But even there Holmström, the journalist of ‘Dagens Nyheter’, expects no surprises. “According to my information, the two governments have been in contact with the 30 capitals and everyone’s response has been positive, including Hungary Y Turkey& rdquor ;, he affirms to this newspaper. It only remains to be seen what will happen in the months that it takes to complete the process that, according to the NATO leadership, will be processed expeditiously.
Both Stockholm and Helsinki fear that Muscú launched hybrid attacks against both nations while its accession is ratified. “That’s going to be the most difficult period because NATO will not defend us & rdquor ;, acknowledges Herlof. According to the Swedish newspaper ‘Aftonbladet’, both the US and the UK have offered to cover the backs of both countries while the process lasts.