The Colorado Avalanche have a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup on Friday night. The Avalanche lead the Tampa Bay Lightning by a 3-1 margin in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, with Game 5 in Denver. Colorado won Game 4 in overtime on the road, giving the Avs a chance to clinch the title at home. Tampa Bay must now pull off an upset on the road to stay alive in the hunt for a third straight championship.
The kickoff matchup is at 8 pm ET in Denver. Colorado is a -175 favorite (risk $175 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Lightning vs. Caesars Sportsbook Avalanche. Tampa Bay is a +150 underdog, and the over-under for total goals scored is six. Before choosing Avalanche vs. Lightning, see NHL predictions from the SportsLine projection model.
The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. Enters Week 2 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals riding a 23-18 streak in their best-ranked NHL side picks. Anyone who has followed him has seen profitable returns.
- Lightning vs. Money Line Avalanche: Avalanche -175, Lightning +150
- Lightning vs. Avalanche plus-minus: 6 goals
- Lightning Disc Line vs. Avalanche: Avalanche -1.5 (+150)
- Tickets Lightning vs. Avalanche: View Posts on StubHub
- TB: The Lightning went 24-15-2 in regular season road games
- COL: The Avalanche went 32-5-4 in regular season games at home
featured game | Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Why Avalanche can win
Colorado is flying high and coming home to a raucous environment. The Avalanche are 15-3 in the playoffs, dominating the competition at every level. That includes eight wins in the last nine games, and Colorado has been terrific at Ball Arena this season. The Avalanche went 32-5-4 in regular season games at home, and Colorado is riding the momentum as well after a memorable Game 4 victory.
Nazem Kadri contributed the game-winning goal Wednesday in his first action since suffering a broken thumb during a sweep victory in the Western Conference Finals. That overtime win further changed things in Colorado’s direction, with a 3-1 lead that held up historically well in the NHL. Teams that lead 3-1 in the Stanley Cup playoff series have 298 wins in 329 series, including a 35-1 record in the Stanley Cup Final under those conditions. It’s even more favorable for teams hosting Game 5 and a potential Game 7, with the Avalanche living up to their talent behind a solid roster.
Why Lightning can win
Tampa Bay’s defense has improved as the series continues. The Lightning have allowed just two regulation goals in each of the last two games, and Tampa Bay shouldn’t be fazed by what should be a raucous atmosphere in Denver. The Lightning have already come back from a 3-2 series deficit early in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and resilience is a crowning trait of the two-time reigning champions.
The Lightning allowed just 2.78 goals per game in the regular season, No. 6 in the NHL, and reigning Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy is an X factor. The four-time All-Star goaltender is allowing just 2.57 goals per game. game in the playoffs with a save percentage of .920. Vasilevskiy also has 71 saves in the last two games combined. With that toughness in the back end and a deep, talented offense with true star power, Tampa Bay is tough for any team to finish in a seven-game series.
How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks
SportsLine’s model leans on the total, as the simulations have the teams combine for 7.2 goals. It also says that one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick on SportsLine.
So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the moneyline Avalanche vs. Lightning jump, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.