Since the beginning of 2020, when Covid-19 was declared a global pandemic, World War II has been permanently focused on everything related to it: first, in urgent sanitary attention to the contagious; after, in combat combat developing a vacancy in record time; and finally, in the implantation and vigilance of social convivial, economic, and commercial media for romper (or at least decrease) the contagion chain.
If so, it will not appear in the courtroom of the priorities of the world, this year will tear to the palestra other themes that are immediately urgent, and can represent an important risk for the world’s recovery efforts. This agreement will be referred to in particular on three themes: the manner in which economic crime will be reflected in the pre-pandemic emergency measures, the geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia, and the various electoral events that will take place in 2022.
Respect for the economy, the International Monetary Fund reduced its projected growth in world GDP by 2022 by a median percentage, from 4.9% to 4.4%. Among the reasons that are to be found are the rupture of the cadence of the summit, world inflation and the possible changes in monetary policy that tendrianism is taking over in order to attack these problems. Although a 4.4% crime rate is unbelievable, it is important to mention this reduction is that the huge amounts of money that he intended to promote the economic crime rate have not been sufficient to guarantee a recovery sustained by varicose veins. In the same sense, it is noteworthy that the high level of volatility that we have experimented with is due to the fact that the financial institutions modify in a more frequent manner their prognosticators, because there is no series of surprises that these numbers change over the years.
If we consider that the governing bodies have historically had high levels of debt, and that the potential for further generation of malpractice reactions in the population, it is clear that there is less room for traditional public action.
It’s out of control with the geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia. The possibility that Russia will decide to invade Ukraine is quite real, as far as the United States and the United Kingdom are evacuating their diplomatic staff from Kiev. A military conflict in this region generates a reaction within the framework, but the United States and its European allies are required to intervene. As far as the East is concerned, tensions between China and Taiwan have not changed: in October, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense, Chiu Kuo-cheng, announced that China would try to restore security in 2025.
A military conflict on a large scale in some of these regions is terrible for the world, by the capacity of the day that can be caused, including the loss of human lives, but above all by the possibility that the conflict extends to all the world .
Finally, in 2022, elections will be held in various parts of the world. If we are exhausted, we will start the elections in Colombia and Brazil, ahead of the victory of candidates in the election of the electoral spectrum -Lula da Silva in Brazil and Gustavo Petro in Colombia-.
Of particular importance to our country, the United States will hold in mid-November midterm elections, while the Democratic Party will have to increase its internal divisions to aspire to retain control of Congress. In other words, President Biden’s action will be severely limited in the next two years, complicating his election.
In Europe, the political panorama will be dominated by the presidential election in France, just as the presidency of the European Union, which will inevitably generate our communication between the national process and the decisions taken at the continental level.
In this way, we will start 2022 with a debilitating global economy and conflicts that could have very serious derivations. In this context, the electoral processes of this year will serve as a thermometer to mediate the spirit of society and to really determine how much he serves the actions of the governs to protect a world agotado and with necessary crises.
* The author is academic of the Panamericana University; previo a eso, desarrolló une carrera de veinte años en el goberno federal en temas de negociaciones commerciales commercales.
Academic
Pistas de aterrizaje
Juan Carlos Baker is an Academic at the Panamericana University. During the year he worked at the Secretariat of Economy, at the Subsecretary of International Commercial Negotiations, which was held between 2016 and 2018.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx