The recovery of retail sales, which is the main indicator of private consumption, was uneven in the 32 states of the country during last February.
Sinaloa was placed first, while Tabasco registered the worst results. Large federal projects, such as the Dos Bocas refinery and the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA), are still not reflected in the purchasing power of households.
At the national level, the drop in infections that boosted social mobility, the acceleration of remittances and greater consumer confidence were insufficient.
One of the factors that reduced family consumption was high inflation, both in the country and in the states.
According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), in the second month of 2022, total income from the supply of goods and services from retail trade in the country was 0.3% below February 2020, before of the declaration of a health emergency due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Of the 32 entities, half exceeded pre-pandemic levels, where they combined different elements, such as inflation, unemployment and economic vocation.
Sinaloa was the state that presented the highest growth in retail trade, 10.7% between February 2020 and the same month of this year.
For the Sinaloa territory, whose vocation is focused on primary activities, the drop in its unemployment rate (from 3.1 to 2.3% of the economically active population -EAP- in the period of analysis) played in its favor.
In addition, it was able to overcome its annual inflation of 7.82% last February (14th place of the highest rates in Mexico).
The second position in retail income was for Baja California, with an increase of 8.9%; The border entity was the first to recover its jobs after the ravages caused by the pandemic.
One of its strengths is that it has the third lowest unemployment rate in the country (1.5%; it fell 0.5 percentage points compared to February 2020).
One of its weaknesses is its high inflation, of 8.22% per year in the second month of the year (the sixth highest), although it did not cause it to impact household consumption, particularly due to its proximity to the United States and its manufacturing vocation. , which was one of the sectors that recovered the fastest.
The podium was completed by Chiapas, with an increase in its retail trade of 10.7% between February 2020 and the same month of this year.
The southern state, dependent on tertiary and primary activities, had the eleventh highest inflation, although it was not a factor that had an impact on the purchasing power of the population.
Other states that exceeded pre-pandemic retail levels were Colima (7.9%), Nuevo León (4.9%), Michoacán (4.4%), Chihuahua (4.1%), Jalisco (3.4%), Guanajuato (2.0%), Tlaxcala ( 1.3%), Sonora (1.3%) and Veracruz (1.2 percent).
Meanwhile, the states with rates below 1%, that is, that barely managed to exceed retail income in 2020, were Campeche, Morelos, Guerrero and Nayarit.
On negative grounds
Of the states that have not yet recovered pre-pandemic levels in retail trade, there are territories involved in large federal projects.
Tabasco registered the largest drop, -6.1% between February 2020 and the same month in 2022. The oil entity has benefited from the Dos Bocas refinery, whose results have already materialized in the construction sector, but not in private consumption.
Entities of the metropolitan economy emerged by the AIFA are also involved: Hidalgo (-6.1%), Mexico City (-1.7%) and State of Mexico (-1.0 percent).
Other important decreases occurred in Quintana Roo (-5.5%), Tamaulipas (-4.8%), San Luis Potosí (-4.6%), Querétaro (-3.6%), Aguascalientes (-3.5%), Puebla (-2.1%) , Coahuila (-2.1%), Zacatecas (-1.4%) and Yucatán (-1.0 percent).
Finally, the states with the least pronounced declines and that are closest to recovering were Durango (-0.3%), Baja California Sur (-0.1%) and Oaxaca (-0.001 percent).
Of other large works of the Federation, the multiplier effect on private consumption was not even among the entities. For example, from the Tehuantepec Isthmus Corridor, only Veracruz showed an increase in retail trade, and from the Mayan Train, Quintana Roo, Yucatán and Tabasco showed decreases.
The 32 entities, outside Banxico’s objective
The main problem that reduces the purchasing power of families in the country is high inflation.
In February, Campeche and Zacatecas had annual increases in consumer prices of over 9 percent.
For its part, Estadio México obtained the lowest inflation in the country, of 5.98%, that is, the 32 entities are outside the Bank of Mexico’s objective of 3% +/- 1 percentage point.
Package Against Inflation and Famine
Faced with this situation, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador recently presented the plan to curb the high increases in consumer prices called the Package Against Inflation and Scarcity (PACIC).
The entities most benefited by the PACIC would be Tabasco, Guerrero and Sonora.
Of the 24 products that the PACIC considers, onions, lemons and edible oil registered the greatest growth in their prices in the last year. The referred states show the highest increases in these goods.
According to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), onions showed an increase of 113.83% at an annual rate during the first half of April 2022.
It was followed by the lemon, with an annual inflation of 46.42%, and edible oils and fats, with a rate of 36.85 percent.
In the case of onions, it stands out that in 21 of 32 entities in the country the variations of the INPC were triple digits, and the rest, double.
The greatest increases occurred in Sonora (189.14% per year), Coahuila (184.35%), Baja California (166.23%), San Luis Potosí (159.25%), Veracruz (152.14%), Chihuahua (149.67%), Quintana Roo (146.96 %), Durango (146.41%), Nuevo León (146.02%) and Jalisco (138.57 percent).
While the lowest rates were in Mexico City (90.31%), Zacatecas (89.79%), Chiapas (88.83%), Michoacán (86.28%), Campeche (86.01%), Yucatán (77.47%), Guerrero (68.73%) and Querétaro (31.68 percent).
For lemon, price growth in the 32 entities ranged between 78 and 22% in the first fifteen days of April.
Guerrero had the highest rate, 77.70%; Next came Jalisco (68.16%), Zacatecas (63.20%), Oaxaca (62.68%), Veracruz (62.35%), Tamaulipas (60.18%), Baja California Sur (58.08%), Baja California (55.45%), Guanajuato (52.61%), Sonora (52.44%), Querétaro (51.11%), Quintana Roo (50.75%) and Sinaloa (48.85 percent).
Meanwhile, in the lower part were Nuevo León (38.53%), Nayarit (36.66%), State of Mexico (35.92%), San Luis Potosí (28.84%), Morelos (24.96%), Campeche (24.67%), Puebla (24.06%) and Yucatan (22.36 percent).
The third product with the highest growth of the INPC was edible oil, where the Mexican states registered increases between 59 and 24 percent.
Tabasco exhibited the highest rate, of 58.75% per year; the podium was completed by Oaxaca (48.92%) and Campeche (48.05 percent).
Other important increases were observed in Baja California (46.62%), Veracruz (44.97%), Tamaulipas (44.47%), Hidalgo (43.13%), Coahuila (40.95%), Michoacán (40.63%), Baja California Sur (40.07%) , Guanajuato (38.98%), Mexico City (37.62%), Zacatecas (36.73%) and Puebla (36.42 percent).
For its part, the smallest increases were Quintana Roo (30.81%), Colima (29.84%), Morelos (29.18%), Chihuahua (29.09%), Guerrero (29.05%), Sonora (27.99%), Jalisco (26.49%) , State of Mexico (26.13%) and Querétaro (24.72 percent).
In summary, the plan to guarantee that the basic food basket has a fair price, which will last only six months in the first stage and has the participation of the Private Initiative, would benefit the states that suffer from the highest inflationary levels in the products considered and thus, counteract the decline in the purchasing power of families.
Measures
In addition to having a guaranteed price on 24 products of the basic food basket, the PACIC considers the increase in the production of corn, beans and rice; incentives for the Sembrando Vida program; free delivery of fertilizers; elimination of tariffs for the importation of ammonium sulfate and other basic inputs necessary for production.
As well as increasing road surveillance to prevent product theft; not increase the collection in toll fees; reduce costs and customs clearance times at seaports; among other benefits.