‘Russia will pay’: Biden launches sanctions over Ukraine. Will Putin blink?

WASHINGTON—“Yesterday, Vladimir Putin recognized two regions of Ukraine as independent states. And he bizarrely asserted that these two regions are no longer part of Ukraine, ”US President Joe Biden began his remarks on Tuesday. “To put it simply, Russia just announced that it is carving out a big chunk of Ukraine.”

Biden recapped what everyone by then already knew: Russia followed that unilateral redrawing of Europe’s map by sending in troops, and extending its recognition and proposed defense of these new regions well into territory Ukraine firmly controls. “This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said.

While he was speaking, the presidential historian Michael Beschloss was moved to recall words from John F. Kennedy’s inaugural speech: “In the long history of the world, only a few generations have been granted the role of defending freedom in its hour of maximum danger.” From Biden’s grave demeanour, you got the sense he felt now summoned to that role, that this was one of those hours of danger.

And not just him. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday this is “the most dangerous moment for European security in a generation.” Clinton-era US secretary of defense William Cohen said on CNN that Russia’s move into Ukraine marks “one of the most dangerous periods in our history, certainly, since 1945.”

The largest country entirely in Europe has been invaded by a nuclear superpower, albeit under the pretense of “peacekeeping.” Keeping the peace certainly did not seem to be the theme of the speech Putin made Monday night, in which he expressed his desire to roll back the map of Europe to 1989, before former Soviet territories were recognized as independent — and some of them went on to join NATO. Biden’s warnings and public threats of economic sanctions and diplomatic shunning in recent weeks have not prevented the start of what could be a war that remakes the world order. The “Pax Americana” that has provided relative peace in Europe for more than 75 years may well be over.

Biden announced stricter sanctions in response to this initial incursion by Russia than many had expected. Monday night, at a time when senior administration officials were carefully dancing around reporters’ questions to avoid calling this an invasion, Biden had announced sanctions preventing Americans from conducting business in the two regions Putin had declared independent. But Tuesday afternoon showed an evolution in the assessment of the situation, and the response: Biden used the word invasion, and he announced a “first tranche” of sanctions. They include: sanctions on two Russian banks, sanctions on Russia’s ability to borrow money, and personal sanctions on “Russian elites and their family members” to be specified in the coming days.

Biden said these had been co-ordinated with allies, and they followed the announcement by Germany that it was ending the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project — a move perceived as strong — and some bank and personal sanctions from the UK perceived as weak.

Later in the afternoon, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland held a press conference to announce Canada’s response, which closely matched the US announcement: sanctions on two Russian banks, a ban on Canadians purchasing Russian sovereign debt, sanctions on the areas Putin recognized, and on Russian members of parliament who voted to recognize them. “These sanctions are a major step and target those responsible for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” Trudeau said, “and they will remain in place until the territorial integrity of Ukraine is restored.”

There are further, more severe, financial moves the West could make: cutting off Russia’s access to the international banking system, for instance, or more serious crackdowns on Russian oligarchs’ assets and status in Western countries.

“As Russia contemplates this next move, we have our next move prepared as well,” Biden said. “Russia will pay an even steeper price if it continues its aggression.”

And Biden made it clear he expects Putin to continue this aggression. “We still believe that Russia is poised to go much further in launching a massive military attack against Ukraine. I hope I’m wrong about that.” But he noted the troops, and equipment Russia has continued to move closer to the Ukraine border, in addition to blood and medical supplies. “You don’t need blood unless you plan on starting a war.”

The US, he said, will continue to provide military and economic assistance to Ukraine, and move US troops already in Europe into Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. But, as Biden has said before, he won’t send them to confront Russia. At least not in Ukraine. “We have no intention of fighting Russia. We want to send an unmistakable message that the United States, together with our allies, will defend every inch of NATO territory and abide by the commitments we made to NATO.”

As ever, it is unclear how Putin will react to the sanctions. The political leadership in Ukraine was still expressing its belief — or hope — that a fuller invasion into Ukraine was not in Russia’s immediate plans, even as Biden was saying he expected one, including an assault on the capital city of Kyiv. But even without any further incursion, a permanent presence by Russian troops in two more areas of Ukraine — it annexed Crimea in 2014 — marks a new era in international relations — one in which for years to come Russia can and likely will launch new waves of aggression on European neighbors it views as a threat to its interests.

Many analysts — including Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst who chairs the House of Representatives Committee on Intelligence — say they expect Putin has already “priced in” the effect of sanctions to his decision making. Russia has built up a budget surplus, for example, to take the bite out of sovereign debt sanctions.

“President Putin is testing our international system” said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN, at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday. Even China’s UN ambassador said all parties involved “must exercise restraint, and avoid any action that may fuel tensions.”

But the meeting was a reminder of how effective the world has proven so far in restraining Russia. The chair of the meeting, presiding over the session, was the Russian UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia, who holds a veto over Security Council resolutions, and currently holds the rotating leadership of the council. He blamed Ukrainian and US aggression for the increase in hostilities. “We remain open to diplomacy for a diplomatic solution,” he said.

Biden hoped for that too, though he was cautious about the prospects. “United States and our allies and partners remain open to diplomacy, if it is serious. When all is said and done, we’re going to judge Russia by her actions, not her words. And whatever Russia does next, we’re ready to respond with unity, clarity and conviction,” Biden said. “I’m hoping diplomacy is still available.”