The Russian currency was located this Tuesday at 79.68 units per dollar, leaving behind the pressures after the war between Russia and Ukraine, since before the invasion it was located at 81.14 rubles per dollar on February 23, and then it touched 143 units per ticket. green on March 7.
Although the ruble depreciated 76.22%, the currency is now trading below 80 units per dollar. It is currently 1.81% below its pre-war level, that is, appreciation.
The ruble still has a 6.73% depreciation so far in 2022, but its appreciation from March 7 to date is 55% in one month.
Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of Economic Analysis at Monex, said that “energy exports from Russia to Europe did not decrease, considering that no restrictions were placed on the main products exported to this region, so dollars continue to enter for this concept.”
In addition, he specified: “we have a surplus balance for these products, so there is more entry of dollars than exits, adding that they have an increase in oil and gas prices, generating higher income from these exports.”
Control
The specialist commented that “another factor in the appreciation of the ruble is due to the control over the holding of dollars imposed by the government of Vladimir Putin, both on companies and individuals, since they cannot have more than 10,000 dollars or leave the country with an amount greater than that amount.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised its interest rate from 9.50% to 20% on February 28, but on April 8 lowered it to 17%, in response to the impacts that the invasion of Ukraine has had on the economy. Russian.
The specialist said that the change in interest rates generated volatility between the ruble and the US currency, however, oil and natural gas exports will continue to decide the path of the Russian currency.
“This strength of the ruble will continue as long as Russia’s energy exports are not sanctioned, but countries like Germany and Italy are making efforts to reduce their demand for oil and natural gas, and seek to acquire it by other means,” Janneth Quiroz concluded.