Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential aspirations have baffled Democrats and Republicans alike.
A prominent anti-vaxxer and son of Democratic scion the late Bobby Kennedy, his independent bid for the White House has frustrated his family and confused decision-makers on both sides.
Now, to the chagrin and delight of many, his candidacy has gone from an afterthought to a potential spoiler.
Recently, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson announced that the presidential hopeful has secured a spot on the ballot in the key battleground state. How her candidacy will shape the state and ultimately the race is anyone’s guess.
Now, with a deep-pocketed running mate at his side and a spot on the ballot in one of the most important states in this election, RFK Jr. has become one of the biggest undecipherable variables in an election that is already full of many.
Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., right, waves on stage with Nicole Shanahan, after announcing her as his running mate, during a campaign event, Tuesday, March 26, 2024, in Oakland, Calif. (Eric Risberg / AP Photo)
The “Wolverine State” has become an integral part of any candidate seeking to secure the White House. Michigan has sided with the presidential winner in nine of the 11 White House races dating back to 1980.
The Biden-Harris campaign is leaving nothing to chance and will open 30 field offices across the state by the end of April. Victory in 2024 will undoubtedly come through Michigan, and now that RFK Jr. will also run for the state, a victory for both the incumbent and the Republican candidate just became more dangerous.
Underscoring that danger are the glaring weaknesses within both Biden’s and Trump’s bases. The question that looms large, however, is: Does RFK Jr.’s place on the ballot create an off-ramp for disaffected Biden voters? Trump voters; or both?
Findings in the last NBC News National Poll show that RFK Jr. actually reduces Donald Trump’s support more than President Biden’s. In a national showdown, Trump leads Biden by two percentage points, 46%-44%.
Supporters of presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gather during a campaign event, March 26, 2024, in Oakland, California (Eric Risberg/AP Photo)
However, when other third-party candidates are included, specifically RFK Jr., Biden gains a two-percentage-point lead over the more populated field. However, a Wall Street Journal poll published earlier this month found that Kennedy won 12% among Michigan voters, while Donald Trump won 39% and Biden 37%.
In 2020 and 2016, the state went by less than 1%. Unfortunately, Kennedy’s surprise entry on the ballot could further reduce the margin in such a close race.
The Biden-Harris campaign hopes its huge, statewide investment will overtake Trump’s lead in the polls despite RFK Jr.’s presence on the ballot. Still, it is the Democratic Party, not the Republican National Committee, that shows deep anxiety about Kennedy’s presence, at least in Michigan.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission over the efforts of the Kennedy-affiliated super PAC, American Values 2024. The DNC has raised questions about the PAC’s signature-gathering efforts to secure Kennedy a spot on the ballot in Michigan.
How viable is RFK Jr. as a national candidate?
To date, Kennedy is only on the ballot in Michigan and Utah. However, his campaign said he has collected enough signatures to appear on the ballot in New Hampshire, Hawaii, Nebraska, Idaho, North Carolina, Iowa and Nevada.
Three of those states (New Hampshire, North Carolina and Nevada) will be critical in determining the outcome in a race that is expected to end with a very narrow margin. Still, it’s unclear whether Kennedy’s campaign will be on the ballot in any of those states. Even more questionable is the viability of Robert Kennedy Jr. as a national candidate.
However, considering the persistent unfavorable highs Putting pressure on Biden and Trump, a third-party candidate with resources and name identification could be enough to sink the candidacy of one of the party’s leading candidates.
Now, with a name emblematic of American political royalty and talking points that reflect the conservative playbook, Kennedy is the unicorn that unifies equal parts polarization and angst on both sides of the political spectrum. However, in a race marked by the electorate’s deep discontent with the main partisan options, RFK Jr. has become the perfect vehicle for voters to express their dissatisfaction and anguish over the options before them.
The recent primary in Pennsylvania showed both frontrunners winning handily, while showing cracks across the gulf in their respective bases. Trump’s former rival Nikki Haley, who suspended her presidential campaign more than a month ago, garnered nearly 150,000 votes. A stark reminder of Trump’s persistent inability to unify the party base behind his presidential bid.
Meanwhile, Muslim and Arab-American voters continue to galvanize “uncommitted” votes against Biden-Harris in tenacious protest of his handling of the war in Gaza.
Senator John F. Kennedy waves from the airplane ramp as he and members of his traveling party prepare to board the plane to Massachusetts on July 17, 1960 in Los Angeles. With the senator are his brother Bob, left, and Bob’s wife, Ethel; his niece and nephews: middle row, left to right, Bobby Shriver, Bobby Kennedy and Kathleen Kennedy; Front: Joe Kennedy, left, and David Kennedy, right (AP Photo)
RFK Jr., with both democratic and conservative bona fides, has become the ideal avatar to drive the most consequential presidential elections of the 21st century. His entry on the ballot in a battleground state is already registering seismic changes but, ironically, is still largely considered enigmatic nationally.
If the war in Gaza continues to escalate, the protest vote underpinning President Biden’s weakness could go from a mere demonstration to a mass exodus. Furthermore, a guilty verdict for Trump in any of his pending criminal cases could brand the maniacal former president with a scarlet letter that repels rank-and-file members of the Republican Party.
Although a largely flawed candidate and an unknown quantity, Kennedy could prove to be the perfect balm for anxious and distraught voters rushing to abandon their respective political parties.
Although it is unclear how much damage Kennedy inflicts on each side, what is clear is that both sides certainly recognize the potential threat.
Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former United States Congressional staffer. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.