Quebec | The year 2023 significantly warmer than normal

For the 26^e consecutive year, Quebec experienced a positive temperature anomaly. And 2023 stands out as one of the hottest years ever recorded in the province, with average temperatures 2.7 degrees higher than those of the 20^e century.

2.7 degrees more

The effects of global warming are clearly perceptible in Quebec, and have been for several decades. Caused by the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, this warming causes anomalies. In 2023, this anomaly reached 2.7 degrees more than the historical average recorded in the province, according to the Institute of Statistics of Quebec (ISQ).

26 years

Sarah Roy-Milliard, from the ISQ, notes that since 1998, temperature anomalies have been “systematically positive”, whereas this was not the case historically. “Before, it was positive, negative, positive, negative… The longest series of similar anomalies was 6 years. Now, we have had a positive temperature anomaly for 26 years. »

Heat and flooding

Christopher McRay, climate science specialist at the Ouranos consortium, notes that we can expect more heat waves in Quebec. “We sometimes hear that higher heat can be pleasant for Quebec. But our models project a huge increase in days at 30 degrees and above in southern Quebec. More flooding in cities, more intense storms, etc. are expected. »

Transportation, Quebec’s challenge

These data remind us that the fight against climate change is far from over, notes Christopher McRay. “We are not doing enough. Every year, the UN takes stock of the policies in place, and we are heading towards 3 degrees of average global warming by the end of the century. The Paris agreements set a maximum of 1.5 degrees. That’s a major difference. Every 0.1 degree becomes more drastic in terms of consequences,” he says. The expert also argues that in Quebec, “it is transport that pollutes the most”. “It is also the sector where it is the most difficult to reduce in the short term. This is the next area that we will have to tackle. »

Increase expected by 2050

The ISQ reports that in Quebec, “climate change could lead to an increase in the average annual temperature of 1.7 to 4.6°C in the south and of 1.9 to 5.8°C in the north. ‘by 2050, according to two scenarios put forward by Ouranos. A trend that is unfavorable to progress, notes Sarah Roy-Milliard. “For natural capital, the climate must be stable over time. So the climate is not stable, and as a result we judge that this is an unfavorable trend for progress for Quebec. »