Presidential election in Panama | José Raul Mulino well in the lead halfway through the count

(Panama) The favorite of the polls for the presidential election in Panama, José Raul Mulino, replacement for ex-president Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014) convicted of money laundering and taking refuge in the Nicaraguan embassy, ​​is largely in the lead after the count in 50% of polling stations, according to the electoral tribunal’s count.

With 33.96% of the vote, Mr. Mulino, a 64-year-old conservative lawyer, is nine points ahead of the center-right candidate, former consul Ricardo Lombana.

Three million Panamanians were called to elect their president, renew the 71 deputies of the unicameral parliament and the regional governments in this one-round election with a simple majority.

These preliminary results are in line with the latest opinion poll which credited Mr. Mulino with more than 37% of voting intentions, almost 20 points ahead of his immediate pursuers.

The shadow of ex-President Martinelli, once a candidate for a new mandate, but overtaken by the courts which sentenced him to 11 years in prison for money laundering, hangs over this election which comes at a time when Panama is suffering from endemic corruption, has just gone through a serious drought which has reduced maritime traffic in its famous canal, the engine of its economy, and that the migration issue is omnipresent with the entry into the country in 2023 of half a million migrants en route to the United States through the formidable Darién jungle on the Colombian border.

The 72-year-old billionaire is also being prosecuted for illegal wiretapping and corruption in the mega-scandal of the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht.

Unable to appear, Mr. Martinelli, who has taken refuge in the Nicaraguan embassy since February 7 with his dog Bruno, has designated José Raul Mulino, his running mate for the vice-presidency, as his successor. And it is thanks to Martinelli’s aura that Mulino soars above the opinion polls.

” Besides ”

Mulino served as Minister of Security under the Martinelli mandate, then Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Justice. Between 2015 and 2016, he was placed in pre-trial detention for corruption, before being released for procedural errors.

Panamanians estimate 65%, according to a Doxa poll, that if Mr Mulino wins, it is former President Martinelli who will act in the shadows. And who could, in the event of his runner-up’s victory, be offered safe conduct to Nicaragua or be pardoned. A scenario feared by the Panama branch of the anti-corruption organization Transparency International: “It would be the triumph of impunity,” fears its representative Lina Vega.

Moreover, after voting, Mr. Mulino went to the Nicaraguan embassy where he met Mr. Martinelli. The two men greeted each other with a warm hug, and exchanged “my brother”, “we will win”, according to a video published by the campaign team of the Realizando Metas (RM) party, founded by Mr. Martinelli.

“To prefer as president the direct representative of a fugitive convicted of corruption is to speak out in favor of cheating as a way of life and to publicly embrace corruption,” declared the famous Panamanian salsa singer Rubén Blades, who is personally involved in the campaign.

Unequal Panama

“Panama must change, there is too much corruption. We are tired,” said Jennifer Navarro, a 50-year-old teacher, at a polling station in the capital.

In addition, “the economic situation is very complex,” estimates economist Felipe Chapman. The balance sheet of the outgoing social democratic president Laurent Cortizo is undermined by a deficit of 7.2% and a public debt of 50 billion dollars.

The future president and his government will have to face weak economic forecasts with growth falling from 7.3% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Thousands of jobs were lost with the closure of Central America’s largest open-cast copper mine amid environmental protests and controversy over the concession contract.

And the Panama Canal, through which around 6% of world maritime trade passes, has had to limit its traffic due to a drought which has emptied the freshwater supply lakes of the locks and calls into question its sustainability.

And in a country with one of the highest GDP per capita in Latin America, Panama “remains one of the most unequal countries in the world,” according to a World Bank report,