After knowing the monetary announcement of Banco de México, financial strategists consider that the door was left open for an increase of 75 base points in the rate in one of the four meetings that remain for this year.
According to economists from Finamex, the brokerage house and Grupo Financiero Monex, the rate could remain at 8.50% at the end of the year, with which we would have a restrictive position.
The risk generated by inflationary pressures is upwards and they do not rule out that the Governing Board raises the rate above 9 percent at the end of 2022.
Pamela Díaz Loubet, economist for Mexico at BNP Paribas, has the specific projection that the reference rate will remain at a historic 9.50 percent.
The more aggressive vote, by deputy governor Irene Espinosa, and the announcement that they will take more forceful measures to combat inflation feed these expectations about the rate, argued the chief economist of Finamex, Casa de Bolsa, Jessica Roldán.
Without a doubt, the door was left open for more aggressive increases of three-quarters of a point to be presented in the future,” he stressed.
The deputy director of economic analysis at Monex, Janneth Quiroz, explained that the tone of the statement is hawkish, that in monetary language it is restrictive and less tolerant to inflation.
turn in strategy
The BNP Paribas economist considers that with this decision, Banco de México took a turn in its monetary policy strategy.
They went from a gradual resolution and according to the economic data released, to a more forceful one regarding the inflation trend, he observed.
He described the communication used in the statement as excellent, especially with regard to the trajectory of the rate in the United States.
“Before this announcement, Banco de México said that they would be attentive to the position relative to the United States and now I think it is very well executed because it distances itself from the Fed in a positive way. It puts at the forefront what happens with inflation in Mexico and it is key because it thus provides flexibility to rise more or end the cycle before the Fed if necessary.
The Monex expert maintains that with this decision by the Bank of Mexico, which left the rate at 7%, the monetary position is restrictive.
Regarding the market’s reaction, which he says remained lateral, it reflects that, although the increase was discounted, we had more information in the statement that suggests that monetary policy will continue to be restricted.