The race for mayor of Montreal promises to be tight. While the municipal election campaign has just started, the two main candidates, Valerie Plante and Denis Coderre, find themselves neck and neck in the voting intentions, according to a Léger poll.The duty. The lead held by the leader of Ensemble Montréal last spring has shrunk considerably, possibly due to his less successful start to the race than expected, the pollster believes.
Denis Coderre collects 37% of the voting intentions, while Valérie Plante obtains a rate of 36%, reveals the Web survey conducted by the firm Léger among 500 Montrealers between September 14 and 19. 8% of respondents prefer Balarama Holness, the head of Mouvement Montreal, and 5% of them would choose Marc-Antoine Desjardins, who heads Ralliement pour Montréal. The undecided or those who refuse to speak represent a share of 14%.
The gap between the two main opponents is narrowing. Last May, Denis Coderre obtained 39% of the voting intentions, against 29% for Valérie Plante, according to a Léger poll.The Journal of Montreal. “Denis Coderre may not have had the hoped-for start. There was the controversy surrounding cell phones while driving, which shook some Montrealers, ”says Christian Bourque, executive vice-president at Léger. Voters tend to judge, not what a political leader says about an issue, but how they talk about it, he explains. According to him, the tone used by Mr. Coderre in recent months has been able to sow doubt in the minds of voters as to the real change made in him since 2017. For his part, Valérie Plante has not had to face to major pitfalls over the summer, besides the issue surrounding public safety, he said.
If Denis Coderre obtains more support than his opponent from respondents over 35, Valérie Plante attracts the favor of young people aged 18 to 34. “At 46%, almost one in two young people would vote for Mme Plant. There is truly a generational issue in this emerging race. It will necessarily have a direct impact on the message of the two main candidates, ”explains Christian Bourque, who believes that the mayor should lead an“ ideological ”campaign and highlight the differences between her and her main opponent.
The head of Projet Montréal is more popular in the central boroughs, while her rival has more voting intentions in the boroughs of the east and west of the island.
Denis Coderre is as good with francophones as with non-francophones, while Valérie Plante garners more support from francophones than non-francophones. The pollster also points out that although he only obtains 8% of the voting intentions, Balarama Holness attracts 15% of non-French speakers.
Almost half of respondents, or 48%, want a change of team at town hall, against 33% who would prefer to see the administration in place remain in place. According to Christian Bourque, this desire for change is perhaps not significant for Denis Coderre. “As we saw in the federal election, over 60% of Canadians wanted change. However, we saw the result on Monday evening. At 48%, it’s not a wave strong enough to carry Mr. Coderre. “
Respondents are divided when the pollster asks them if they are satisfied with Valérie Plante. 46% are, while 49% say they are very dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied. More than half of the supporters of candidate Balarama Holness are dissatisfied with Mr.me Plante, but more than a third are still satisfied, which makes Christian Bourque say that if the outgoing mayoress seeks to gain new support, she should perhaps look on the side of this party.
When the pollster asks the same question about Denis Coderre’s term as mayor from 2013 to 2017, 43% of respondents say they are satisfied with his work and the same proportion of respondents are dissatisfied.
Campaign themes
Among the 15 themes submitted by the pollster, the cost of rents and access to home ownership appear at the forefront of the issues of the Montreal election campaign. “What is interesting is that this is an issue that is not only municipal jurisdiction. There are federal laws and tax credits that can be applied. It won’t be easy. It’s not like clearing snow from the streets. It’s more complex, ”explains Christian Bourque. As this is a subject of particular concern to young people, “Mr.me Plante must refuel on this issue, ”he believes.
The second concern is gun control and the funding of the Service de police de la Ville de Montréal (SPVM). “The closer you are to where the shots are fired, the more it becomes an important issue. […] In certain areas of Montreal, this is the number one issue, ”points out Mr. Bourque. But again, this is a matter that is not of exclusive municipal jurisdiction.
Follow, in order: the economic revival of the city center and the commercial arteries, public services – usually at the top of the list -, the management of construction sites, the fight against homelessness and municipal taxes. Heat islands and greening arrive at 9e rank, followed by the place of French in Montreal and the sharing of the road between motorists, cyclists and pedestrians.
The pollster believes that the decision not to allow postal voting for Montrealers aged 70 and over will not have a significant impact: “Seniors see voting as a duty. They will find a way to vote. According to him, the postal vote in the federal elections did not show that the age bias was significant.
A web survey does not have a margin of error, but for comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 500 respondents is +/- 4.4%.
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