As in the “old days” prepandemic, the Airbus aircraft manufacturer has just launched its “Outlook for the next 20 years” where it announces that by 2040 39 thousand new passenger and cargo aircraft will have been placed, most of which will be state-of-the-art (currently only 13% is) and that will significantly improve fuel efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions.
Although these two years -2020 and 2021- are considered lost, the truth is that for specialists, the air transport sector has proven to be quite resilient and this leads to forecast growth of 3.9% per year from 2022, which which implies an annual contribution of 4% to world GDP and 90 million direct jobs.
According to the forecasts of the European shipowner, the factors that support the expected growth of aviation in the following years have to do with the new economic expansion that is expected at the end of the pandemic and the dynamism of trade and tourism.
At this point, the middle classes play a fundamental role, the ones most likely to fly, explains Airbus, and that throughout the world they will be increasing their presence by 2 billion people for the next two decades, that is, together with those already existing, could represent 63% of the world’s population.
That is why it is so important that this segment of the population continues to grow through business expansion opportunities and formal employment, since it is undeniable that the increase in purchasing power has been the basis for the expansion of airlines, either traditional or low-cost, passenger or cargo.
On the other hand, Airbus estimates that of the 39 thousand new airplanes, some 29,700 will correspond to the segment of narrow-body airplanes and short or medium range, such as the A220 or A320; 5,300 midsize, such as the A321XLR (designed for low cost and long range) or the A330neo. And on the wide body side, on which the A350 is located, a demand of 4,000 aircraft is expected in the next 20 years.
A segment that is beginning to wake up in a very important way is cargo, since electronic commerce has been a strong spur, a trend that is here to stay as the pandemic showed us that it can be tremendously efficient and profitable. In this way, the European manufacturer is considering a demand for around 2,440 cargo aircraft, of which 880 will be newly built.
This growth is, of course, followed by the need for 550,000 new pilots and 710,000 highly qualified technicians, as well as training centers and maintenance services that allow the expected growth to be sustained.
Apparently, optimism has returned to decision makers in the aviation and aeronautical sector. However, this return is fully colored by the imperative of new technologies and sustainable fuels and under the premise that the low cost will grow more, to the detriment of the traditional ones, but with its consequences in terms of the reconversion of infrastructure that is not knows who will pay, a dilemma for governments.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx