Petro would be forced to make adjustments to his economic proposals, taking into account “the need to work with a fragmented Congress.”
Richard Fracis, analyst at Fitch Ratings
Before knowing his victory in Colombia, Gustavo Petro Urrego had already given some points about the candidates to integrate his ministerial cabinet. Although uncertainty continues in this regard, since several of the names on the table have not expressed his interest in accepting the charges, the president has reiterated his interest in working with José Antonio Ocampo, to whom he would offer the Ministry of Finance .
Graduated from the University of Notre Dame, Indiana, and with a doctorate from Yale University, Ocampo is one of the most prestigious Colombian economists abroad, with a direct line to the main multilateral organizations in the world (IMF, World Bank, among others).
In addition, with a long career in the public sector, Ocampo was director of National Planning and Minister of Finance during the government of Ernesto Samper and more recently co-director of Banco de la República.
However, for the first round of the presidential elections, Ocampo reiterated his support for the former candidate of the Hope Center Coalition, Sergio Fajardo, with whom, he said, they built the best program.
However, during the week prior to this Sunday’s elections, the leader of the Historical Pact, in an interview with El País de España, assured that he would like to have former ministers Rudolf Hommes and Alejandro Gaviria in his economic team, who told him their support during the election campaign. “The initial team started with Ricardo Bonilla and now, in the growth process, I have spoken with José Antonio Ocampo; Rudolf Hommes joined, who was also Minister of Finance, and one of the best economists in the country, Alejandro Gaviria. It is a very strong team, with very different economic schools of thought,” said Petro, who also referred to the possibility of working with Cecilia López.
Despite his initial criticism of the economic ideas of the then candidate, Hommes is “confident that Gustavo Petro and the Historical Pact will not miss the historic opportunity to consolidate peace and begin a long period of prosperity, harmony and social justice. This is how I interpret the promise of putting Colombia to live tasty”.
Curb dependence on oil, a risk: analysts
In a pre-election note, Richard Fracis, principal analyst for Colombia Sovereign Ratings at Fitch Ratings, said last week that Petro would be forced to make adjustments to its economic proposals, taking into account “the need to work with a Congress fragmented, and institutional checks and balances should help limit the scope for radical political change.
According to Fitch, Petro has committed to breaking with some key elements of Colombia’s economic policy, in particular ending dependence on oil, halting exploration and focusing on renewable energy in an effort to diversify the economy.
In similar terms, an analysis by Control Risk noted that a limited popular mandate and a fragmented Congress will lead to the search for mobile majorities, limiting the ambition and viability of the reform agenda.