Pessimistic Canadians feel recession is already here, survey finds

Pessimism.

Five in six Canadians believe the country is already in recession and more than half fear the economy will worsen this year, a new survey suggests.

Pollara’ Strategic Perspectives annual economic outlook It’s bleak, even though Canada isn’t technically in a recession, defined as two straight quarters of economic contraction instead of growth.

“Canadians don’t view a recession the way economists do; For most, a recession means things are not going well in the economy,” said Dan Arnold, Pollara’s chief strategy officer.

In fact, 83 percent thought Canada was in recession, up from 66 percent in the Pollara poll last year, and the highest since 91 percent in 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis.

“Clearly this is one that’s being driven by cost-of-living concerns more than anything else,” Arnold said, noting that 56 percent of those surveyed felt the economy would get worse this year.

Only 14 percent felt it could improve, while 21 percent said it won’t change and 10 percent didn’t know.

Pollara surveyed 4,020 people across the country from December 8 to December 20. Online panel samples cannot be assigned a margin of error, but for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“It’s been a tough couple of years for people, so maybe there’s not a lot of optimism right now,” Arnold said, referring to the COVID-19 pandemic that hit Canada in March 2020.

The survey, provided exclusively to the Star, is Pollara’s 28th annual review of Canadians’ perceptions and expectations of the economy and their personal financial situation.

As part of the survey, respondents were asked to select up to four words that “best describe the feelings they have about Canada’s economy.”

A staggering two-thirds (66 percent) said “concerned,” 43 percent “upset,” 39 percent “sad,” 39 percent “pessimistic,” 24 percent “resigned,” 18 percent “embarrassed,” and 10 percent percent “boring”.

Just 14 percent said “optimistic,” 12 percent “calm,” 3 percent “proud,” 3 percent “inspired,” 2 percent “happy,” and 2 percent “excited.” Eight percent had no feelings.

The responses were slightly less severe when respondents were asked to describe their feelings about their personal finances: 52 percent said they were “worried,” 33 percent “upset,” 29 percent “sad,” 27 percent “pessimistic,” 22 percent “resigned,” 14 percent “embarrassed,” and eight percent “bored.”

A quarter, 27 percent, said they were “calm,” 25 percent “optimistic,” 23 percent “confident,” 11 percent “happy,” 10 percent “proud,” five percent “inspired” and four percent “excited.” Six percent had no feelings.

“The cost of living has created this anxiety. We have had high inflation for most of the last year and it affects everyone,” Arnold said.

When asked about their “overall financial situation in recent years,” 44 percent said they were holding their own, while 38 percent said they were losing ground and 15 percent were making progress.

In terms of household income, 50 percent said they were falling behind, 33 percent said they were keeping up, and 10 percent were more than keeping up.

But Canadians remain confident in their job security, with 20 percent saying someone in their household is likely to lose their job this year, the lowest rate in the annual survey since 2008.

In last year’s survey, 26 percent feared such a job loss; in 2021, the figure was 35 percent.

Pollara also asked respondents about their top “cost of living stressors.”

Three-quarters, 77 percent, said the cost of groceries was a source of stress.

60 percent mentioned the cost of gasoline, while 59 percent pointed to housing expenses such as rent, mortgage, and property taxes, and 48 percent mentioned home improvement or maintenance expenses. living place.

Exactly half, 50 percent, said income taxes caused them stress, while 49 percent said the same about sales taxes.

The cost of prescriptions was a source of stress for 42 percent of respondents, while 41 percent said other health care expenses.

Monthly bills were also stressors: 42 percent cited electricity costs and 37 percent noted cell phone, cable, and Internet charges.

A third, 35 percent, said auto insurance premiums, while 34 percent said life, disability and critical illness insurance premiums, and 25 percent said home insurance, while 27 percent said pandemic-related expenses, such as masks.

A quarter, 26 percent, said education and tuition costs caused them stress, while 17 percent mentioned childcare costs.

Robert Benzie is the bureau chief for Star’s Queen’s Park and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

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