Pandemic: the second season has surprised us again

This second year of the pandemic has followed the script of the second season of any successful series:

1. A hectic beginning in crescendo, where the happy ending of the previous season is questioned;
2. A quiet development where it seems that the problems have already been overcome, it is forgotten that there was a problem and finally everything seems to return to normal;
3. A twist of the script where things get complicated again in an unexpected way;
4. The final fireworks (in the form of an omicron), whose outcome in this case is still unknown.

The bad thing is that it is not a series, but life itself, which has brought us so many surprises.

Surprise 1: vaccines prevent serious illness and death

Published data from pre-clinical and clinical trials of the vaccines indicated their high ability to prevent death and the most severe symptoms of Covid-19. The verification is direct in the following graph, which represents the number of deaths from Covid-19 in Spain in the last year. Let’s remember the timid beginnings of the vaccination process and the spring rush.

But serious cases and deaths continue to occur. The following table shows the raw data for the last two months, remembering that the vaccinated population is 80% among those over 12 years of age. That is the big difference and where the efficiency of the vaccines is also confirmed.

Surprise 2: vaccines don’t prevent transmission

Just a year ago, in December 2020, in Spain Araceli received the first vaccine against Covid-19. This great milestone was followed by a massive vaccination campaign whose results were seen day by day, as we have seen in the previous section.

This led us to a gradual increase in optimism. Many of us thought that once the entire population was vaccinated, the Covid-19 problem would end. And all of us (even those of us who report on science) began to focus on other topics that we had abandoned with the onset of the pandemic. It turned out to be a welcome respite, but not the end of our avatars.

Two unpleasant surprises awaited us. We suspected one of them but did not know the real impact. The other caught us off guard, like so many other events in the pandemic.

First it has been verified that the vaccines that are being administered do not avoid transmission of the virus. That is, a vaccinated person can transmit the virus, even if they are not seriously ill.

The next jug of cold water was the finding that the antibodies in the blood generated by vaccines decrease a lot over time, and especially long before than we thought. The estimated duration right now is about four months. Faced with new variants, after this period, it is easier for the person to become infected and contagious.

Surprise 3: variants are depleting the Greek alphabet

Between 2020 and 2021, SARS-CoV-2 has been able to transform a large number of times and show us different variants. Four of them have brought us upside down in 2021 and have been called by the WHO as worrying variants (YOU). We refer to Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta. Since October 2020 when the Delta variant appeared in India, no other major variant of concern had been identified.

However, another unpleasant surprise awaited us at the end of the year. In accordance with reports From the WHO, the first confirmed case of infection caused by Omicron was identified on November 9, 2021. Two days later, the first sequence of this variant was obtained in Botswana. More than 60 mutations / deletions / insertions have been identified in Ómicron, making this variant the one with the highest number of changes of all those identified to date.

The data we have so far are those obtained in South Africa, Denmark and the United Kingdom. It seems that it is much more transmittable than Delta. According to Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (London, UK), Ómicron’s R0 (expandability) could be around 10, compared to 2.5 for the initial Wuhan virus and 7 for the Delta variant.

It is very likely that it will become the predominant variant in most countries.

It is not very clear that it is less virulent than Delta, but there are some studies, such as the one made in Scotland, which suggest a 2/3 reduction in the risk of hospitalization. But of course, this in vaccinated population. What will happen in countries with low vaccination rates is still unknown.

Surprise 4: each wave is the last, but only in our heads

In Spain we are already on the sixth wave of the virus. And invariably, whenever a new wave approaches its peak, we think it is going to be the last. Until, due to the numerous infections, a new variant arrives and shows us our error.

However, those who know the history of pandemics have been warning us: there is no precedent (except for the 1917 flu) for a virus that has struck humanity and then has disappeared as if by magic. The flu virus does not disappear, but mutates so much that it is totally unrecognizable from one year to the next. But, finally, perhaps it is good that during each wave we think that it is the last. This helps us to endure it and not despair or throw in the towel. Pure human nature, pure survival exercise.

Surprise 5: We have learned to live with uncertainty, haven’t we?

During the first half of the year, optimism about vaccines led us to plan for a relatively normal year. However, it has not been like that. The succession of variants of the virus capable of partially dodging the immunity of vaccines and the realization that they do not prevent transmission has made us change our plans. Or not change them, but face uncertainty regarding the future. A second year of uncertainty has shown the great capacity for adaptation that we have.

But make no mistake, we are not completely immune to effects of so much uncertainty about the mood. This year in Spain 2.1 million people have been diagnosed with depression, 230,000 of them severe. 5% of Spaniards suffer from anxiety or depression. This shows that psychological resistance has a limit and the pandemic is leaving a strong emotional mark.

Our wish for 2022 is that we are already experiencing the last episodes of this pandemic series, and that the next annual report contains only positive surprises.

Matilde Cañelles López, Scientific Researcher. Science Technology and Society, Institute of Philosophy (IFS-CSIC); Maria Mercedes Jimenez Sarmiento, Scientist of the CSIC. Systems Biochemistry of the bacterial division. Scientific communicator, Margarita Salas Biological Research Center (CIB – CSIC), and Nuria Eugenia Campillo, Senior Scientist. Medicinal Chemistry, Margarita Salas Biological Research Center (CIB – CSIC)

This article was originally published on The Conversation. read the original.