On Sunday, all had to present proof of double vaccination. Masks were worn, except for eating, some conversations, or taking pictures. That may sound a bit like being in a restaurant right now, or a bar, or any number of places in Ontario.
It was a gala, where Toronto Raptors president Masai Ujiri, who received a third booster dose two months ago, caught COVID for the first time in his life. Everyone in the sold-out Wizards game is being asked to self-monitor for symptoms.
Omicron is different. Almost two years have passed and people want to move on. I know. But the nightmare is here; not for Ujiri, but for the province. Omicron is unlike anything we’ve ever seen.
“This is the scariest thing since this pandemic started,” says Dr. Beate Sander, University Health Network Scientist and Modeler, Canadian Research Chair in the Economics of Infectious Diseases and Director of Independent Volunteer Scientific Table Modeling of Ontario. group.
“Honestly, I’m not sure I’ve been as worried as I am now. Probably not. I remember the first wave, but in the first wave, we really didn’t know what was to come. And now we know what is coming. New information comes out almost every hour, so it is really very difficult to pin down anything, and some of the estimates that we talked about this morning that should be included in the models are already almost out of date.
“And what really worries me so much is that every piece of information that comes out seems to make things worse.”
It is difficult for the human mind to understand; part of that is the sheer bloody wall of exponential mathematics. The numbers feel imaginary. Sander explains: In places like South Africa, Denmark, Germany and the UK, in different populations, Omicron has doubled every three to four days, or faster. That’s roughly a 400 percent increase in one week. Ontario Medical Director Dr. Kieran Moore said Omicron currently accounts for about 10 percent of recent cases. That would mean about 145 Omicron cases in Ontario on Friday.
With a 400 percent increase each week, Sander notes that the numbers do something like this: 145 today, 600 in one week, 2,400 in two weeks, 9,600 in three weeks. That would be New Years Eve, and if left unchecked, it would mean nearly 40,000 cases a day a week after that. We were already scheduled to cancel surgeries with a wave only from Delta. Based on anticipated growth curves, Omicron could become the predominant variant in Ontario within 10 days, and this will be an Omicron pandemic in early 2022.
“We won’t even have the ability to test,” says Dr. Andrew Morris, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Toronto and a member of the science board. “And the public is not ready to close things down tomorrow. No matter what the right thing to do is, you can’t do that. But I’m pretty sure everyone in the next six to 12 weeks will be infected with Omicron, unless they’re living the life of a hermit. That’s just the reality. “
Vaccines help. 76.6 percent of Ontarians ages five and older get two doses and protect against hospitalization and serious outcomes, thank the gods. But the notion of mild outcomes may not hold for the unvaccinated and vulnerable. In Gauteng, the epicenter of the South African outbreak, with an average age of about 27 years, hospitalizations have doubled in the past 10 days and ICU admissions have doubled in a week. In Denmark, which many scientists see as roughly analogous to Canada in terms of vaccine coverage and stringent restrictions, ICU occupancy has nearly quintupled in the past month.
It’s a lot of numbers, and I don’t blame you if your eyes go glassy or if you look the other way. I get it.
But Omicron is so transmissible that it moves faster than we can think. It will explode. Even if it was a little less virulent, the sheer number of cases will make up the difference. And there are 330,000 unvaccinated Ontarians between 50 and 69, and another 500,000 between 30 and 40. Omicron will find them. The hospital system is fragile.
“When I look at the capacity of those local health systems and how they have been able to function over the past few years, I think there are real concerns,” says Dr. Martin Betts, Scarborough Health’s chief of critical care. Network, which targets patient transfers and surgery cancellations in places like Kingston or Cornwall. “We can see what is happening in South Africa, in the UK, in Israel. We are two to four weeks behind these places. So it’s hard, it’s hard to see it coming. “
The public does not want to hear it and has plans for the parties. The governments, federal and provincial, are frozen, making recommendations that will not work. And on Friday, Ontario announced that it would not lift vaccine passports in mid-January, that vaccine passports would be QR code only, that public health would review bogus medical exemptions, and that third doses would be opened to everyone over the age of 18 years old on January 1. 4 next year.
It was an artificial progress. Omicron Undermines Protection Against Vaccination Infections: Data in English on Friday showed that protection with two injections could be as low as 30% for Pfizer and zero for AstraZeneca. Fixing obvious holes in the vaccine passport system is a solution for a world that won’t exist for much longer. Opening boosters for everyone after the holidays, when the numbers will skyrocket, is not enough.
“I think every day that we don’t step up is a wasted day,” Sander said.
Ontario should slash capacities in everything from restaurants to sports arenas to sex clubs; order all office workers who can work from home to do so; reinforce masking and emphasize the nature of the virus in the air; and do your best with the third doses, especially for those in long-term care. Smart people care a lot about long-term care.
“At the moment, the public doesn’t recognize the enormity of what lies ahead of us,” Morris says grimly. “But they will.”
Canada has seen horrible things, but has not seen the worst of COVID, as other countries have. A wave like this, after it looked like we were winning, with five to 11 year olds being vaccinated, boosters available, the society closest to normal, it is difficult to look into the eyes. I do not want too.
We will have no choice.
Reference-www.thestar.com