Ontario’s power system is looking for more power producers as demand rises and a major nuclear plant nears closure, a process likely to ensure more natural gas generation as the government seeks to end reliance on it.
It means that for at least the next two decades, greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector will increase.
But the electric system operator says Ontario is already using hydropower to its fullest, while solar and wind power are weather-dependent, and natural gas generation can provide the reliability and flexibility needed to support green initiatives and the consequent increase in demand for electricity, such as from electric vehicles and electric arc furnaces in steelmaking.
By around 2038, the Independent Power System Operator projects that net greenhouse gas emission reductions from electric vehicles will offset emissions from the power sector.
While IESO has acknowledged that more gas generation will be needed in the near term, Energy Minister Todd Smith has asked it to explore a moratorium on new gas plants.
“We want to get to net zero on the power grid,” Smith said in an interview.
But he noted that an IESO report last year that examined whether natural gas generation could be phased out by 2030 found that it would lead to rolling blackouts and higher electricity bills.
“We have to make sure we have a reliable and affordable system, and if we have an affordable electricity system, we will look at electrification in other areas to reduce emissions,” he said.
Acting NDP leader Peter Tabuns, also the party’s energy critic, said it is difficult to reconcile seeking more gas generation while also exploring a moratorium.
“They’re hitting the gas and hitting the brakes at the same time,” he said.
“I would say that their interest in getting more gas plant proposals is probably much more an indicator of where they are going than any words about ‘Tell us what we can do to reduce gas flaring in the future.'”
Rupp Carriveau, director of the Environmental Energy Institute at the University of Windsor, said Ontario should stop generating natural gas, but it is very difficult to do so.
“It’s incredibly reliable, it’s pretty efficient, and until recently it’s been pretty profitable,” he said.
“But it’s a bit disappointing to me that there isn’t more emphasis on pushing more renewables even though they are apples and oranges, no doubt.”
Renewable energy in Ontario comes with a fair amount of political baggage. Electricity prices became a major source of anger ahead of the 2018 elections in which the Liberals went from being a majority government to losing official party status.
Bills had roughly doubled over the course of a decade due in part to the Liberals’ green energy initiatives, in which consumers paid above-market rates to power producers with long-term contracts.
The Progressive Conservatives canceled 750 of those contracts during their first term, saying the province didn’t need the power and the contracts were driving up costs for taxpayers.
Tabuns said those cancellations have worsened the supply situation.
“There just aren’t two ways to do it,” he said.
The energy minister said that while Ontario is looking at a supply gap “for a short period of time until we get those nuclear reactors back on the grid,” canceling green power contracts was the right thing to do.
“They weren’t going to fill the affordable and reliable electricity gap that we’re experiencing. We’ve seen that unfortunately with renewables, they can’t reliably fill the gap. So we would still have to back up with other forms of generation to balance the need.
The Pickering nuclear generating station, which accounted for 14 percent of electricity generation last year, will begin a phased closure in 2024.
Other nuclear units are undergoing renovations this decade, with several out of service at once on overlapping schedules. IESO says it is confident it can fill the nuclear gap with the acquisition it is making.
But even when those units come back online, the IESO projects a widening gap in electricity supply, as broader electrification takes off, particularly in the transport sector.
Demand from the growth of electric vehicles and the electrification of public transport is expected to increase much more rapidly starting around 2035. Around then, the projected gap between needed and available electricity is expected to reach 5,000 megawatts, enough to power five million homes, through the summer, even if all current power producers renew their contracts.
An IESO spokesman said the current acquisition process will address Ontario’s resource needs over the next decade, and the operator is considering adding more to maintain long-term network reliability.
It is looking to add more non-emitting resources to the generation portfolio, including small modular nuclear reactors and storage capacity, as well as new energy efficiency programs.
Smith asked the IESO to provide recommendations this month on new conservation initiatives. It is also scheduled to inform you in November about the possible moratorium on gas, as well as a plan to get to zero emissions in the electricity sector.
This report from The Canadian Press was first published on July 17, 2022.