Ontario PCs see lead decline as election campaign begins: survey

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As campaigning for the June provincial elections begins, new figures show that support for Ontario PCs may be slipping.

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The results of a new Leger/Postmedia poll show that the 14-point lead previously enjoyed by the Tories has been halved, with the Ontario Liberals breaking a seemingly perpetual two-way tie for second place with the NDP.

“This month we’ve seen (that lead) narrow, largely because the Liberals have picked up a little bit of speed,” Leger’s Andrew Enns said.

Measuring voting intentions, the Ontario PCs ranked first among respondents, with 36 percent support, the Liberals ranked second, with 29 percent, and the NDP garnered 25 percent support. .

In fourth place with five percent was the Green Party, followed by the New Blue Party with two percent, with all other parties taking three percent.

Ontario PC support in April stood at 36 percent, with the Liberals at 25 percent and the NDP at 24 percent.

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Of those who are determined, 59 per cent chose the Tories, 45 per cent chose the NDP, 34 per cent say they will support the Liberals and 27 per cent have pledged to vote Green.

What was interesting about this month’s numbers, Enns said, was how many voters weren’t so sure: About half of those surveyed said they hadn’t yet decided who they would vote for.

“That’s a bit of a stretch,” Enns said.

“For strategists in the back room, that’s where campaigns really become important.”

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The Green Party had the largest number of voters, 65 percent, who said they might change their minds between now and Election Day.

That compares with 59 percent of undecided liberal voters, 57 percent of New Blue party supporters, 51 percent of the NDP and 35 percent of PCs.

This hidden indecision also shows up when respondents are asked who they think will win the election.

Forty-five percent of voters say they think Doug Ford will win a second term, with “I don’t know” coming in second at 28 percent, Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca at 15 percent and NDP leader Andrea Horwath with 12 percent

While determined voters naturally think their party leader has the best chance of winning, Ontario PC supporters overwhelmingly think Ford will return as prime minister at 91 percent.

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That compares with 44 percent of NDP voters who believe Horwath will win and 40 percent of Liberal voters who believe Ontario’s next prime minister will be Del Duca.

Among determined PC voters who don’t think their party will win, three percent believe Del Duca will win, less than one percent say Horwath, and six percent refused to answer or were undecided.

Of determined NDP voters who don’t think their party will win, 21 percent said Ford would win, followed by 12 percent by Del Duca and 23 percent undecided.

Among liberal voters, 28 percent say Ford will win, followed by 6 percent for the NDP and 26 percent undecided.

“Whether you’re really undecided right now, or you’re voting for a party but your support for that party is lukewarm, the launch and these first few weeks are going to be important as people start to tune in and think seriously. about what they are going to do,” Enns said.

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Most seem interested in following the election, with 60 percent of those surveyed reporting watching coverage closely, with men over 55 most interested in the campaign.

PC supporters were the most engaged, with 72 percent tuning in to election coverage daily a few times a week.

Seventy percent of NDP supporters say they follow it closely, followed by 61 percent of Liberals and 39 percent of Greens.

While last month Horwath and Ford tied for the most favorable leader at 39 percent, this month’s numbers have Horwath ahead at 41 percent.

Del Duca jumped four points to 31 per cent, while Greens leader Mike Schreiner remained at 20 per cent.

However, unfavorability outweighed favorability, with 53 percent reporting an unfavorable impression of Ford, 42 percent for Horwath and Del Duca, and 36 percent for Schreiner.

Fifty-two percent of those surveyed say they are dissatisfied with the Ford administration, and only 22 percent approved last week’s pre-election provincial budget.

Leger’s poll was conducted from April 29 to May 2 with 1,000 eligible Ontario voters randomly selected, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.

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