We have adjusted our projection for oil imports upwards, as we do not detect sufficient elements to anticipate a drop in the international price of gasoline in the medium term”
Ricardo Aguilar, Invex analyst
Mexico registered a deficit in its merchandise trade of 8,986.9 million dollars from January to May 2022, the maximum it has had for an equal period, the Inegi reported this Monday.
The negative balance was the result of exports for 229,537.3 million dollars, 18.5% higher at the annual rate, and imports for 238,524.1 million dollars, which had an increase of 23.5%, at annual rates.
The result is mainly explained by the oil balance deficit, which registered a record amount of 11,239 million dollars, as a result of exports of 16,503 million dollars and imports of 27,742 million dollars.
Ricardo Aguilar, an analyst at Invex, estimated that Mexico’s trade deficit will remain in 2022 due to a brake on exports.
“Our estimate is already around -19,000 million dollars for the whole year. In particular, we have adjusted our forecast for oil imports upwards, as we do not detect sufficient elements to anticipate a drop in the international price of gasoline in the medium term”, he said.
Even less, added Aguilar, if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the main factor of distortion in the commodity market, continues during the second half of this year.
Mexico’s previous record deficit in its product trade balance occurred in 1994, when it was -7,227 million dollars.
Regarding the results for May alone, Mexico exported products for a value of 50,005.1 million dollars, which represented an increase of 22.4% year-on-year and its fourth month in a row of double-digit growth.
On the contrary, imports climbed 29.1% at the annual rate, which marked a record of 52,220.5 million dollars and accumulated 15 continuous months of double-digit growth.
Consequently, Mexico recorded a deficit in its trade balance of 2,215.3 million dollars.
This performance occurs while the Bank of Mexico reported that the available indicators suggest that global economic activity slowed down during the second quarter, while global inflation continued to rise, in some cases reaching its highest level in decades, pressured by the persistence bottlenecks, recovery in demand and high food and energy prices.
Considering its two major divisions, Mexican oil exports were 3,809.1 million dollars in May, an increase of 63%, while non-oil exports totaled 46,196 million dollars, an advance of 20%, year over year.
Specifically, manufacturing exports rose 20.3% year-on-year, to 43,346 million dollars and, as part of these, automotive exports rose 10.7% (13,877.8 million dollars) and non-automotive exports increased 25.4% (29,468.2 million).
The context is also marked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which shook financial markets, interrupted international trade and caused sharp increases in oil prices.
The most important increases in Mexican manufacturing exports were observed in steel products (46.3%), machinery and special equipment for various industries (32.9%), food, beverages and tobacco (23.8%), electronic equipment and devices (14%). ) and automotive products (10.7 percent).
In turn, the annual advance of the latter was derived from increases of 10.5% in sales channeled to the United States and 11.5% in those directed to other markets.
In May 2022 and with seasonally adjusted figures, total merchandise exports reported a monthly increase of 0.91%, the net result of an increase of 1.46% in non-oil exports and a decrease of 5.14% in oil exports.
In May 2022, the value of oil exports was made up of 3,192 million dollars of sales of crude oil and 617 million dollars of exports of other oil products.
In that month, the price of the Mexican mixture of export crude stood at 104.61 dollars per barrel, a figure higher by 4.79 dollars compared to the previous month and by 40.27 dollars compared to May 2021.
The volume of crude oil exported stood at 0.984 million barrels per day in the reference month, a level lower than the 1.043 million barrels per day in April 2022 and the 1.031 million barrels per day in May 2021.
The value of agricultural and fishery exports in the fifth month of the current year was 2,067 million dollars, an amount that implied an annual increase of 17.4 percent.
In turn, extractive exports stood at 783 million dollars, with an annual increase of 9.5 percent.
Total imports registered a monthly growth of 0.42% in May. This originated from the combination of a 7.85% advance in oil imports and a 0.65% reduction in non-oil imports.