The inflation expectations for next year that the market consensus has are 4%, reveals the international consultancy FocusEconomics.
This forecast incorporates an upward adjustment from 3.9% the previous month and shows that the market does not expect the inflation it will return to the punctual objective not even next year.
In the detail of the information collected among 33 analysis groups and brokerages, an important difference can be seen between the forecasts of the analysts consulted, where the extreme is taken by those who are in Torino Capital, who project that inflation for the coming year may be located by 6.8%; as well as American Chamber, which considers that a variation of 5 percent can be registered.
Meanwhile, the forecasts of inflation in the target range are brought by 19 groups consulted and range from the 3.4% estimated Credit Agricole up to 4% who anticipate Swiss credit, Goldman Sachs, Invex, JP Morgan, and TD Securities.
As happens regularly in the November report, the consultancy stopped presenting expectations for indicators for the current year, so that the data in the October report are the latest for 2021.
Last month, the consensus of inflation expectations it stayed at 6% which is double the target; a forecast that incorporates nine consecutive upward revisions per month, on an initial expectation that they had at 3.6% in January.
In reading the economic outlook for Mexico, the economists of FocusEconomics explained that “inflation is expected to remain notably above the target until the end of the year before falling back towards the target (3% +/- 1%) due to high prices of raw materials and the recovery of economic activity” .
Rates up
In contrast, those who expect the lowest price fluctuation, at 3.4%, are the experts of Credit Agricole and four groups that anticipate a 3.5% variation, which are Moody’s Analytics, Oxford Economics, BBVA Bancomer and Actinver.
In the last survey of expectations for this year’s indicators carried out by FocusEconomics in October, the 33 analysis and consulting groups that make up the consensus estimated that the funding rate would remain at 5.12 basis points, which implies that they expected only one additional increase in revenue for the rest of the year, since the rate was at 4.75 percent.
The contrast is also observed when comparing it with the forecast that they brought in January, when they expected that the funding rate would close the year at 3.80 points, which implied two cuts from the 4.25% it had at the start of the year.
They expect GDP of 3%
About the Gross Domestic Product of Mexico (GDP) of Mexico for 2022, the expectations gathered are at 3%; a rate that has remained unchanged in the last five months, according to information collected by the international consultancy FocusEconomics.
This average expectation is below the forecast adjusted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which is 4%, and it is also below the 4.1% projected by the federal government in its General Economic Policy Criteria.
Inside the monthly LatinFocus Consensus Forecast report for November, the economists of the consultancy highlighted that the generalized diagnosis of the experts consulted is that “in 2022 growth will observe a slowdown due to a softer performance by the United States, due to the potential shock of new waves of Covid-19 and by the uncertainty of the domestic business environment ”.
Among the 46 expectations collected, the panelists with the highest growth expectations for Mexico in 2022 are those from Vector Casa de Bolsa, who anticipate an increase of 4% in the START.
Close to them, the Kiel Institute projects that an advance of 3.9% can be achieved and CABI, whose model anticipates that the economy can achieve an advance of 3.5 percent.
At the end of the expectations, there is the lowest GDP for 2022 that has American Chamber México, when estimating that the GDP will barely achieve an advance of 1.8 percent.
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Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx