NHL Draft Lottery | The return of the abacus

But what is this singular roar? Don’t you recognize the sweet sound of an abacus in action? The NHL will hold its traditional lottery on Tuesday evening, an event rewarding the cream of the mediocrity in its industry and whose big winner will obtain the first pick in the next draft. Brief reminder of a meeting that Montreal fans know better and better.

Are we still talking about this?

Oh yeah ! By concluding the season on 28^e rank in the general rankings of the NHL, the Habs find themselves for the third time in a row among the teams best positioned to obtain the very first place in the draft on June 28. By virtue of this positioning, the Flannel is given an 8.5% chance of winning the lottery, a mechanism put in place by the league in 1995 to prevent the worst team in the campaign from systematically drafting first. The most moribund clubs have the best chances of winning the jackpot, but nothing is guaranteed to them anymore. This year, it is the San Jose Sharks who have the best chance (25.5%) of shouting with joy while kissing the host.

It seems simple, right?

Get rid of this feeling immediately. It is, on the contrary, infinitely complicated. Even though we talk about “the” lottery, there are actually two draws involving the 16 teams not qualified for the playoffs. All can improve their lot, but with a rule stipulating that a club cannot advance more than 10 places, only 11 teams are in the running for the first pick. If the winner of the first draw is one of the five ineligible organizations, the worst team on the circuit is de facto awarded the first choice… but not if it is one of the 11 other clubs that wins. Concrete example: if the Detroit Red Wings, virtually at 15^e rank in the draft, win the lottery, they can only advance further to fifth place. If so, the Sharks would draft first. But if the Canadian moved from fifth to first, the Sharks would have to go through the second draw. Furthermore, no one can move back more than two places.

Who will get first choice?

Maybe the Sharks, but more likely not the Sharks. The informed reader will remember that the sharks in the turquoise jersey have a 25.5% chance of winning the first prize… therefore a 74.5% chance of not obtaining it. This is the genius of the exercise: the six teams best positioned for the first choice have a greater chance of going backwards than of advancing, or even of staying where they are. That includes, you see us coming, the Canadian. According to the Tankathon site, the CH, whose place in the ranking would a priori earn it fifth place, has an 8.5% chance of being drafted in first place, 8.6% in second, 0.3% in third, 0% in the fourth, 24.5% in the fifth, 44% in the sixth and 14.2% in the seventh. The same Habs can also consider themselves lucky to have won the first choice in 2022 when they had finished the season in last place in the ranking, since to date, only 15 of the 28 teams in this position have had this chance.

Who are the young guns to watch?

With almost two months left before the draft, we will have plenty of time to talk about it again. But there seems to be a consensus around the candidacy of Macklin Celebrini, center player of the Boston University Terriers, as the first choice. At 17, and in his first season in the NCAA, he amassed 64 points, including 32 goals, in 38 games. This performance earned him the Hobey-Baker Trophy, awarded to the most outstanding American university player. After him, defender Artyom Levshunov as well as forwards Ivan Demidov, Cole Eiserman and Cayden Lindstrom are those who generate the most enthusiasm. Celebrini, however, is considered in a class of his own.

And the Canadian?

If he is lucky, the Canadian will be able to draw from the list listed above, although Levshunov could create a certain dilemma, he who is a defender and right-handed like the CH’s first round choice last year, David Reinbacher. A likely selection between the 5^e and 7^e places would nevertheless provide access to a significant pool of talented players. Everyone selected in this 2020-2022 range is either already established in the NHL or on the verge of it. And past drafts have seen skaters like Moritz Seider, Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson and Matthew Tkachuk, among others. This positioning also allows for more daring choices, like the one the Philadelphia Flyers made last year with Matvei Michkov (7^e), two ranks after the Canadian. Some CH fans still haven’t come back from it. Maybe they’ll never even come back.

The NHL lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 7 at 6:30 p.m. and will be broadcast live on TVA Sports.