Six months ago, on the eve of the midterm elections of the Lopez Obrador administration, at the top of the Fourth Transformation, with pristine clarity, they formulated calculations on the short and medium term. In the immediate term, Morena and his allies barely aroused 36% of the electoral preferences, which would prevent compliance with the superior instructions, of repeating the absolute majority in the lower house.
If he were to be on the ballot again, the federal Executive would lose. And in the race for the presidential candidacy of 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard were tied, although one in five respondents opposed that they or any other Morenoist representative was AMLO’s successor.
The measurement of political leaders and the electoral climate that portrayed this ominous scenario was not just any survey. Despite being by telephone – hybrid, between fixed and cellular devices – it had a robust sample of 2,000 interviews conducted in the 32 states, whose design and management fell to Gisela Brito, from the Public Opinion area of the Latin American Strategic Geopolitical Center. .
That progressive think tank then produced its second report on the political and social situation in Mexico. The first – it appeared in June 2020 – was the subject of mention at the morning conference at the National Palace. Additionally, it publishes a current situation report.
The image of the president captured by that poll matched the record of most local pollsters. Also, other opinions on the performance of the ruler. And the identification of a band of citizens – equivalent to a third – opposed to the Fourth Transformation.
Polarization is the sign of these times. Of the origin of wealth, three-quarters of those interviewed assume that it comes from previous privileges and corruption. In the same proportions, they recognize that social aid is necessary for the poor population to have access to a dignified life.
Based in Buenos Aires, CELAG is led by Spanish academics Sergio Martín and Alfredo Serrano, as well as Ecuadorian Mauro Alejandro Andino, a former government official of Rafael Correa.
That institution has the former South American president and the former Spanish vice president, Pablo Iglesias, among its advisers. These functions are also fulfilled by the undersecretary of foreign relations, Maximiliano Reyes, and the Spanish academic Juan Carlos Monedero, ideologist of Podemos and director of the company Neurona Consulting, which leads Morena’s communication strategy in Mexico.
The first quarter of 2021 was ending when that report was released. There appeared some glimpses of the ongoing controversy over the initiative presented by the federal Executive to reform the electricity sector. Only 25% of those interviewed spoke out against the proposal that the Mexican State administer the Nation’s natural resources and 40% described as wrong the idea that the electricity reform promoted by AMLO is beneficial for the country.
His projection on the presidential succession is not wasted. On the political-electoral scenario in Mexico, his collaborator reported that Foreign Minister Ebrard and the head of Government of Mexico City were positioned as potential “successors” to the current president. “In the opposition spectrum there is no clear leadership,” he concluded, “when asked who should lead the opposition to the current government, a third of the citizens answered ‘none’, and Ricardo Anaya obtained 23% of support.”
The counterpoint between Ebrard and Sheinbaum would explain what happened after June 6. The head of Foreign Relations surpassed the head of government in all attributes – loyalty to the Executive, management of the country’s economy, representation of Mexico abroad and ability to confront drug trafficking and corruption – among those who stated that they would vote for AMLO.
Side effects
PARITARIANS. The mayor of León, Guanajuato, Alejandra Gutiérrez Campos, assumed the presidency of the National Association of Mayors, in which municipal officials nominated by the PAN converge. And at the request of the national leader of that political formation, Marko Cortés, will demand from the Chamber of Deputies that the state and local funds abrogated by the Fourth Transformation be fully restored. Gutiérrez is the first woman to have this responsibility and the new executive committee of ANAC will have Luis Nava Guerrero, mayor of Querétaro, as vice-president secretary and Santiago Taboada Cortina, mayor of Benito Juárez in Mexico City, as vice-president treasurer.
Journalist
Vital signs
Journalist and columnist for El Economista, author of Doña Perpetua: the power and opulence of Elba Esther Gordillo. Elba Esther Gordillo against the SEP.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx