Montreal regains its pre-pandemic bearings and more

Employment in Montreal has been particularly strong throughout the pandemic, driven in large part by the information technology sector, which has experienced marked growth. Result: at 4.8%, the unemployment rate in the metropolitan area is the lowest ever recorded since this data was compiled.

At the moment, the Greater Montreal economy has an employment level that is 2% higher than at the start of the pandemicobserves Christian Bernard, vice-president, international talents, business intelligence and communications at Montréal International.

” There are more people employed in the Montreal metropolitan area as we speak than there were when the virus hit in February 2020. »

These are not minimum wage jobs, assures Mr. Bernard, but rather jobs with high added value, which contribute to the wealth of the metropolis. This is one element that explains why the Montreal economy is doing so wellhe believes.

These good salaries also contribute to the growth of the GDP in the metropolis, another essential ingredient in the recovery.

For Montreal, we expect growth of 3% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023, explains Pedro Antunes. This means that real income per citizen will increase in the coming years.

It is not only in terms of job creation, but also in terms of wealth creation that Montreal continues to be an economic engine not only in Quebec, but in all of Canada.emphasizes Christian Bernard.

This good economic performance dates from before the pandemic and, if it slowed it down somewhat, it is now on the rise again.

Economic fundamentals have been good in Montreal for several yearsbelieves Mr. Bernard.

” Public finances are healthy and the business environment is stable and predictable, which makes the metropolis an interesting choice for multinationals. »

A growing number of them are setting their sights on Montreal. In 2021, 100 investment projects for a record amount of $3.8 billion have been announced.

A good number of these companies belong to the field of information technologies, but the life sciences and aerospace also stand out, specifies Christian Bernard.

A structural change for the city center

A dark point in the picture, however: the city center is struggling to resume its wanderings. Some 68% of workers have returned to the office, but only a third of them plan to do so full-time, according to a survey conducted on behalf of the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal (CMM).

Those who have returned continue to spend almost as much as before, but there will necessarily be a shortfall if many remain teleworking all week. Traffic will decline by 19% to 25% and consumer spending will decline by about 14%, PwC Canada predicts.

The Conference Board is concerned about the medium-term consequences for small businesses.

We have not yet felt the shock of this major recession that we have experienced because of the support programs, but the reality is that there are going to be major structural changes that we are going to have to absorb and which are going to be costly for some companiesfears Pedro Antunes.

” This is not to say that we expect this to be the end of big cities, but it is a structural change that will take [du] time to recover. »

The office occupancy rate is another aspect to monitor. It’s holding up for now, but the Conference Board is worried about what will happen when the leases expire.

Most companies that have their lease in downtown offices will not abandon them right away, these will be adjustments that will come in the medium and long term.underlines Mr. Antunes.

Downtown contributes 33% of the City’s non-residential property tax; therefore, a decline in its value would result in a loss of revenue for Montreal.

Montreal downtown is ready for the revitalization of the district. The City Center Commercial Development Corporation is focusing in particular on the diversification of the offer.

If we are doing so well, it’s because we don’t depend only on offices, says Glenn Castanheira, general manager of Montreal downtown. Even if the offices are closed, the streets are full of people. Why? Because we are the largest cultural center in Quebec and one of the largest in North America. We must continue to maintain this asset.

Mr. Castanheira is hopeful of seeing a new city center reborn. New businesses may wish to locate in a redesigned downtown. A trend that began before the pandemic and to which it has given a boost.

Workers will change, he believes. It’s going to be a lot more professionals, young people and companies that we weren’t used to having downtown, like technology companies, creative companies, which previously were in other central neighborhoods , such as the Mile-End, in particular, and which now look towards the city centre.

” We have the image of the city center with business dinners and ties. Either you’re in finance, you’re a lawyer, or you’re an accounting clerk and you work in a gray cubicle. But it has changed a lot. »

The challenge for Montreal, notes Mr. Castanheira, will be to maintain the attractiveness and accessibility of the city center by tackling the problems of safety and cleanliness, which are constantly observed in the central districts. This is the basis. If we lose this foundation, everything else crumbleshe adds.

The demographic challenge

While Montreal’s GDP growth is good, the Conference Board predicts that it will still be lower than that of other major Canadian cities, mainly due to the lack of labour.

During the pandemic, immigration has decreased in Quebec, explains Mr. Antunes. Now that the economy has picked up, the labor market has tightened significantly.

This is a challenge for many employers, even more in Quebec than elsewhere in Canada, because in Quebec, immigration was already low and the unemployment rate was very low.he observes.

This may be beneficial for workers, but for companies it is more problematic. It’s an impediment to productive capacity, notes Mr. Antunes. There are many companies that are not able to produce as much as they would like. Their growth is limited by the shortage of labour.

In the longer term, however, the situation should improve, estimates the Conference Board, which predicts that as barriers to international mobility fade, the population will increase, with an average growth of 0.6% per year. year between 2022 and 2026.