At this point in the still-nascent 2022 season, the American League Central is probably the worst of the six divisions. There is only one team above .500, and that team is only two games over .500 and was 4-8 just over a week ago. The favorite to win the division just lost eight straight games and a team tied for second place is being embarrassed out of the Midwest.
All in all, it’s not very good. However, that doesn’t mean it’s any less exciting than other divisions. In fact, one could argue that a close race resulting in a division winner and four teams losing in the wild cards would be one of the most fun.
And when it comes to betting with the good folks at Caesars Sportsbook, there’s always money to be made.
Let’s take a look at the current odds to win the AL Central and break down how each team looks. The entries are as of Thursday, April 28.
Odds to win the AL Central
Chicago White Sox: -160
Minnesota Twins: +290
Cleveland Guardians: +800
Detroit Tigers: +1200
Kansas City Royals: +2800
White Sox (7-10; -160).
After a 6-2 start, the White Sox dropped eight in a row. What’s worse, that streak included three losses each to the Twins and the Rangers. They have already started the season without Yoán Moncada and Lance Lynn. They have lost Eloy Jimenez for six to eight weeks. The bullpen has been banged up.
And yet, the Sox are relatively big favorites here.
I agree with the odds that the White Sox will remain the favorites in the division. They’ll get healthier and probably just got their worst losing streak of the season out of the way early. Bad streaks happen, they just get amplified in our minds when the season is still so young.
Are there concerns? Absolutely. The depth of the rotation until Lynn is back is a concern, as Dallas Keuchel could be cooked, Vince Velasquez simply doesn’t cut it, and the workload Michael Kopech is capable of handling for a full season is a question mark.
Overall, though, they should be fine. I just wish the odds were moving more as a result of the losing streak.
Verdict: This is still the favorite, but the value is terrible.
Twins (10-8; +290).
After a 4-8 start, the Twins are emerging with a six-game winning streak. It appears that opening with a four-game series against the Mariners was a difficult task and that was followed by two against the Dodgers. Carlos Correa has not batted and will. Jorge Polanco is likely to start putting up numbers as well. Oh, and as long as Byron Buxton is on the field, he is arguably the best player in baseball. There are certainly a lot of downsides and Buxton’s injury history is enough to scare people.
Meanwhile, they seem to have something going on with that pitching staff. Through four starts, Joe Ryan would be a Cy Young contender (3-1, 1.17 ERA, 0.70 WHIP). Dylan Bundy and Chris Paddack already look very comfortable and they’ll get Sonny Gray back at some point.
There’s a lot to like here, even if the offense feels like a house of cards when Buxton isn’t in the lineup.
Verdict: This is the best value right now.
Guardians (7-11; +800).
Jose Ramirez remains one of the best players in baseball and, at the same time, is totally underrated. Some of his collaborators, notably Steven Kwan and Owen Miller, have given reason for optimism.
We know that the pitching staff, led by Shane Bieber, can carry the team at times, but so far the group as a whole has been inconsistent.
The Guardians so far against teams in the Central (both AL and NL) are 7-2 with a plus-37 run differential. Against teams outside the Central, they are 0-9 with a run differential of minus-34. I already mentioned that the AL Central is probably the worst division in baseball, but if we rank it 1-6, the NL Central is possibly number five.
I say all this to ask: trend or coincidence?
Are the Guardians only able to hold their own against bad teams? And will it even matter, considering how many games against Center teams they all have here this season?
It’s too small a sample size to have a definitive answer at this juncture, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. The most likely spot for the Guardians is third, but they could win out or finish fourth, or even last. There is a lot of variability.
Verdict: If you don’t like the White Sox or Twins, the value might be justified here.
Tigers (6-11; +1200).
This is a flawed team, no doubt, and the most likely finish is fourth place.
However, there is a silver lining. A player as talented as Spencer Torkelson could continually improve as the season progresses. Players like Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario and Akil Baddoo are almost certainly going to hit much better than they have. Javier Baez and Austin Meadows give them a quality offensive backbone. The bullpen looks good.
Some of the upside is mitigated by injuries in the rotation to Casey Mize and Matt Manning, of course, and several of the aforementioned hitters are notoriously inconsistent. There will be some really bad stretches – they’ve lost seven of their last nine right now.
I also can’t help but remember how A.J. Hinch took everything out of last year’s group after May 7, going 68-61 to close things out. This team has a pretty decent amount more capability and upside than the 2021 iteration. It’s been a rough April, but they’re still only 3 1/2 games back.
Verdict: I don’t see it, but if you really believe, why not?
Royals (6-10; +2800).
Not a very good team on paper anyway, the Royals resume is unimpressive to this point. They are 5-5 at home, but that’s after winning the first two. They are 1-5 on the road and have only played three games away from the Centrals.
The offense isn’t very good and outside of Whit Merrifield, you can’t really count on anyone with a hot streak on deck. Maybe Bobby Witt Jr, but then Andrew Benintendi isn’t going to keep up his pace on the plus side. The rotation isn’t going to hold up all season either. I do like the bullpen, at least.
This is very likely your last place team and even if they somehow avoid that fate, their 90 percent achievement this season probably won’t come close to taking the division. They would need to reach perhaps their best possible number in the win column as the top four teams fold.
And, sure, someone might think, “hey, it’s only $10 and they could make $280 if they somehow pull it off.” But they won’t. And it’s more than $10, because it takes time and effort. Plus, you have to look in the mirror and admit that you’ve done it. There is such a thing as opportunity cost, after all.
Verdict: Don’t bother.
Reference-www.cbssports.com